20251029申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251029

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper prices may be on the stronger side as the concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profits are at the break - even point, and an Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a deficit, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Although zinc concentrate processing fees are rising and smelting profits are positive, with smelting output expected to increase, the overall supply - demand difference is not obvious. Also, due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices rose by over 1%. The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, yet smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand deficit [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices rose by 0.45%. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to increase. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment growth slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones [2]. Market Data - Domestic Futures and Basis: Copper's previous domestic futures closing price was 86,990 yuan/ton with a basis of - 60 yuan/ton; aluminum was 21,120 yuan/ton with a basis of - 40 yuan/ton; zinc was 22,275 yuan/ton with a basis of - 95 yuan/ton; nickel was 120,300 yuan/ton with a basis of - 1,490 yuan/ton; lead was 17,375 yuan/ton with a basis of - 205 yuan/ton; tin was 282,780 yuan/ton with a basis of - 1,930 yuan/ton [2]. - LME Data: For copper, the LME 3 - month closing price was 11,030 dollars/ton with a spot premium of - 19.54 dollars/ton and an inventory of 135,975 tons (a daily decrease of 375 tons); for aluminum, it was 2,894 dollars/ton with a spot premium of 2.61 dollars/ton and an inventory of 469,275 tons (a daily decrease of 3,850 tons); for zinc, it was 3,057 dollars/ton with a spot premium of 171.09 dollars/ton and an inventory of 37,050 tons (a daily decrease of 550 tons); for nickel, it was 15,245 dollars/ton with a spot premium of - 207.07 dollars/ton and an inventory of 251,238 tons (a daily increase of 384 tons); for lead, it was 2,025 dollars/ton with a spot premium of - 35.54 dollars/ton and an inventory of 232,375 tons (a daily decrease of 3,000 tons); for tin, it was 36,325 dollars/ton with a spot premium of 40.00 dollars/ton and an inventory of 2,725 tons (a daily decrease of 25 tons) [2].