Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - After the high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection stage again. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cut and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In the fourth quarter, the market style may return to value and be more balanced compared to the third quarter [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices for IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4648.40, 4634.80, 4604.00, and 4567.40 respectively, with increases of 68.60, 68.00, 62.40, and 66.80 and increases of 1.50%, 1.49%, 1.37%, and 1.48% respectively. The trading volumes were 24392.00, 74172.00, 14177.00, and 3440.00, and the open interest changes were - 2317.00, - 6793.00, - 1216.00, and 1074.00 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices for IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3051.20, 3051.60, 3053.00, and 3049.20 respectively, with decreases of - 17.00, - 16.20, - 16.00, and - 18.80 and decreases of - 0.55%, - 0.53%, - 0.52%, and - 0.61% respectively. The trading volumes were 10401.00, 34831.00, 4435.00, and 1454.00, and the open interest changes were - 808.00, - 1601.00, 52.00, and - 68.00 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices for IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 7287.40, 7231.00, 7068.20, and 6886.60 respectively, with decreases of - 25.60, - 28.40, - 25.40, and - 20.20 and decreases of - 0.35%, - 0.39%, - 0.36%, and - 0.29% respectively. The trading volumes were 24174.00, 82049.00, 15658.00, and 4523.00, and the open interest changes were - 2679.00, - 6265.00, - 377.00, and - 112.00 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices for IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 7410.00, 7335.60, 7122.60, and 6907.20 respectively, with increases of 2.60, 3.00, 4.20, and 3.00 and increases of 0.04%, 0.04%, 0.06%, and 0.04% respectively. The trading volumes were 38819.00, 141946.00, 22315.00, and 8213.00, and the open interest changes were - 3501.00, - 1434.00, - 1256.00, and 1365.00 [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current values of inter - month spreads for IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 13.60, 0.40, - 56.40, and - 74.40 respectively, compared to previous values of - 12.80, - 0.60, - 56.00, and - 76.80 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - CSI 300 Index: The previous value of the CSI 300 index was 4691.97, with a trading volume of 220.91 billion shares and a total trading value of 5715.63 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 4716.02, with a trading volume of 262.20 billion shares and a total trading value of 6726.70 billion yuan. The decline was - 0.51% [1] - SSE 50 Index: The previous value of the SSE 50 index was 3050.42, with a trading volume of 54.63 billion shares and a total trading value of 1487.20 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 3069.53, with a trading volume of 70.41 billion shares and a total trading value of 1852.95 billion yuan. The decline was - 0.62% [1] - CSI 500 Index: The previous value of the CSI 500 index was 7341.03, with a trading volume of 202.12 billion shares and a total trading value of 4220.69 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 7379.39, with a trading volume of 232.05 billion shares and a total trading value of 4717.62 billion yuan. The decline was - 0.52% [1] - CSI 1000 Index: The previous value of the CSI 1000 index was 7479.22, with a trading volume of 251.80 billion shares and a total trading value of 4310.16 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 7495.38, with a trading volume of 265.34 billion shares and a total trading value of 4581.70 billion yuan [1] - Industry Performance: The declines in energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption were - 0.86%, - 2.97%, - 0.31%, and - 0.06% respectively. For other industries like major consumption, medicine and health, real - estate finance, and information technology, the changes were 0.01%, - 1.61%, etc. [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The previous values of the basis for CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 futures contracts were provided, showing differences compared to the previous two - day values [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Information on the previous values and changes of domestic indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - Cap Board Index, and ChiNext Index, as well as overseas indexes like the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index were presented [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released, with goals including economic growth in a reasonable range, increased total factor productivity, and higher resident consumption rates. It also proposed developing strategic emerging industries and key technology breakthroughs in certain fields. China and ASEAN signed the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol. There are talks about a China - EU meeting on rare - earth issues. China is committed to opening up its financial sector [2] 6. Industry Information - The 11th batch of national drug procurement was successfully bid. The soybean area in China is expected to remain above 150 million mu for four consecutive years, and the number of breeding sows has decreased. A special campaign against live - streaming reward chaos was launched. The added value of the wholesale and retail industry increased by 5.6% in the first three quarters, and rural road construction progress and investment were reported [2] 7. Stock Index Views - U.S. stock indexes continued to rise, while the domestic stock index adjusted downward the previous day. The market turnover was 2.17 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance increased. After the high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection stage. The market style may return to value in the fourth quarter [2]
申银万国期货早间策略-20251029
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-10-29 03:42