美联储降息对我国债市可能有哪些影响？：海外宏观利率专题

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The Fed's rate cuts can be divided into preventive and relief (recessionary) rate cuts, with different policy triggering backgrounds and implementation goals [1][5]. - The Fed's preventive rate cut in September 2025 may have limited impact on China's bond market, as China's monetary policy emphasizes "independence" and focuses more on internal balance [1][88][89]. - In the fourth quarter, the economic downward pressure may increase, and the possibility of using policy tools such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in the future rises. Currently, the bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may decline oscillating [2][90]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Types of Fed Rate Cuts - Preventive rate cuts are usually initiated when the economy shows signs of slowing but has not yet entered a recession, aiming to balance employment and inflation risks through small - scale and gradual interest rate adjustments, such as in 1995, 1998, 2019, 2024, and 2025 [1][5][79]. - Relief rate cuts often occur when the economy has fallen into a deep recession or faces a systemic crisis, characterized by large - scale and rapid interest rate cuts to stabilize the financial market, such as in 2001 - 2003, 2007 - 2008, and 2020 [1][5]. 2. Four Fed Rate - Cut Cycles Since 2000 2.1. 2001 - 2003 Relief Rate Cut - Background and measures: Triggered by the burst of the Internet bubble, the 9/11 terrorist attack, and corporate financial scandals. The Fed cut rates by 550 basis points from 6.5% to 1.0% [10]. - US economic indicators: GDP growth was sluggish, unemployment rate rose, core PCE inflation rate declined, and corporate investment was severely hit [13]. - Impact on China's bond market: China's central bank cut rates in 2002. The 1 - year and 10 - year Treasury yields showed different trends, reflecting the reduced sensitivity of the bond market to monetary easing when the domestic economy rebounded [19]. 2.2. 2007 - 2008 Relief Rate Cut - Time, amplitude, and measures: From September 2007 to December 2008, the Fed cut rates by 500 basis points to 0% - 0.25% and launched three rounds of QE [25][28]. - Characteristics: Fast - paced, large - amplitude, innovative policy tools, and multiple goals [29]. - Impact on China's bond market: The Sino - US yield spread narrowed and then fluctuated. There were changes in capital flows, with short - term international capital flowing in and out at different times [30][33][36]. 2.3. 2019 - 2020 Preventive + Relief Rate Cut - Preventive rate cut (2019.7 - 2019.10): Against the background of global economic slowdown and Sino - US trade frictions, the Fed cut rates three times by 25 basis points each time. The US economy showed some recovery, and the bond market fluctuated. In China, the bond market was stable, and foreign capital increased holdings of RMB bonds [40][41][51]. - Relief rate cut (2020.3): Due to the global public health event, the Fed cut rates to 0% - 0.25% and implemented unlimited QE. China also increased the easing intensity, and the bond yield declined and then rebounded [46][47][58]. 2.4. 2024 H2 Preventive Rate Cut - Background, time, amplitude, and impact: The Fed cut rates by 100 basis points in the second half of 2024, with a "fast - then - stable" feature. It aimed to avoid a hard landing of the economy. China's bond yields declined, and foreign capital increased holdings of Chinese bonds [60][66][67]. 3. Characteristics of the Preventive Rate Cut in 2025 - Trigger paths: Driven by the pressure of national debt scale and debt cost, and the marginal deterioration of the employment market [71][76]. - Market pricing and yield trends: The market had partially priced in the rate cut before it happened. After the rate cut in September 2025, the US Treasury yields first declined and then rose [79][80][82]. 4. Impact of the Fed's Rate - Cut Cycle on China's Bond Market - Short - term impact: The Fed's rate - cut expectation may attract foreign capital to flow into China's bond market through spread repair and open up space for domestic monetary policy [1][84]. - Long - term impact: China's bond market trend may depend more on domestic factors, including economic fundamentals and policy coordination. The influence of the Fed's policy on China's monetary policy may be weakening [87][88]. 5. Economic Situation and Bond Market Outlook in the Fourth Quarter - Economic situation: The economic growth in Q3 slowed down compared with Q1 and Q2. Consumption and exports may face pressure, and the external environment is also unstable, increasing the possibility of using policy tools [2][90]. - Bond market outlook: The bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may decline oscillating. The 10 - year Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.60% - 1.80% [2][90].