Hongqi Chain(SZ:002697) HTSC·2025-10-29 04:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 6.50 [7][5]. Core Views - The company is actively optimizing its store network, which has led to short-term revenue pressure but is expected to enhance profitability in the long run [2][4]. - The company has achieved a gross margin of 29.36% in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.23 percentage points, supported by scale advantages and supply chain optimization [3]. - The company is undergoing a digital transformation and channel optimization, which is anticipated to improve operational efficiency despite short-term revenue impacts [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 7.11 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 383 million, down 1.9% year-on-year [1][2]. - For Q3 2025, revenue was RMB 2.30 billion, down 10.9% year-on-year and 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of RMB 102 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.5% [1][2]. Cost Control and Profitability - The company has effectively controlled costs, with a sales/management expense ratio decreasing by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points to 22.0% and 1.3%, respectively [3]. - The company reported a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 368 million in the first three quarters, an increase of 4.0% year-on-year, and a net operating cash flow of RMB 880 million, more than double the net profit [3]. Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards by 2% for 2025, 2% for 2026, and 1% for 2027, reflecting uncertainties in downstream demand recovery [5]. - The net profit expectations have also been revised down by 8% for 2025, 7% for 2026, and 4% for 2027, with projected net profits of RMB 510 million, RMB 554 million, and RMB 590 million, respectively [5].