TGWC(SH:600116) Changjiang Securities·2025-10-29 04:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The improvement in water conditions has alleviated performance pressure, with the comprehensive energy business outlining a long-term blueprint. The significant enhancement in hydropower generation due to improved water conditions in the southwestern region of China has led to a decrease in average power supply costs and an increase in profits. The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 96.26% year-on-year in the third quarter [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.714 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.99%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 303 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96.26%. For the first three quarters, the operating revenue was 7.611 billion yuan, down 6.06% year-on-year, with a net profit of 351 million yuan, down 8.53% year-on-year [6]. Hydropower Business - The changes in watershed water conditions significantly impact the proportion of self-generated low-cost electricity and high-cost purchased electricity, affecting the profitability of the sales business. The hydropower generation volume decreased by 5.98% year-on-year in the first three quarters, but the decline narrowed significantly from a 23.04% decrease in the first half of the year. The third quarter saw a year-on-year increase of 27.50% in generation volume [12]. Shareholder Returns - The company has implemented a shareholder return plan and a quality improvement and efficiency enhancement action plan. It plans to distribute dividends of 95 million yuan based on the profit situation for the first three quarters, which accounts for 27% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period. The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio of over 50% from 2022 to 2024 [12]. Comprehensive Energy Services - The company is expanding its comprehensive energy services, with significant progress in various projects, including distributed photovoltaic and wind power projects. The completion of several projects is expected to be a crucial source of future growth, maintaining the company's growth attributes [12]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.19 yuan, 0.28 yuan, and 0.34 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 34.83 times, 23.94 times, and 19.74 times. The "Buy" rating is maintained based on these forecasts [12].