Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most of the energy chemical products are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, methanol, and urea. Some products are in a "Bearish Consolidation" or "Bearish Rebound" state, such as L, PP, PVC, glass, and soda ash [1][2][6] Core Views - The overall energy chemical market is under pressure, mainly due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost - side fluctuations, and geopolitical influences. Most products are expected to face downward pressure in the medium - to - long term, but short - term rebounds may occur due to cost fluctuations and market sentiment [1][2][6] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: OPEC+ may continue to increase production, leading to an oversupply of crude oil. The market has digested the risk of sanctions against Russia, and the driving force of oil prices has shifted to supply. The consumption off - season has begun, and the pressure of oversupply is gradually increasing. There are also geopolitical and macro - economic factors at play [1][9] - Strategy: Hold short positions, buy call options to control risks, and lightly add short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [450 - 465] [1][11] LPG - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: The risk of US sanctions against Russia has been released, and the cost - side oil price has corrected. The supply has decreased slightly, and the downstream chemical operating rate has increased, with relatively strong demand on the demand side. The port inventory has decreased [1][15] - Strategy: Buy put options and wait for the release of risks. Lightly try short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4200 - 4300] [1][16] L - Core View: Bearish Rebound [1] - Main Logic: Social inventory has slightly decreased, and the inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches is neutral. The import volume in October is large, and there is an expectation of further increase. The supply will continue to be in a loose pattern. The demand peak season has arrived, but the restocking motivation is insufficient. The oil price may decline in the medium term, and the cost support is insufficient [1][20] - Strategy: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell hedges at high prices. Short - term follow - up with cost rebounds. Pay attention to the range of L [6900 - 7100] [20] PP - Core View: Bearish Rebound [1] - Main Logic: The upstream device maintenance intensity has increased, but the demand is facing high destocking pressure at the end of the "Silver October". The oil price may continue to fall in the medium term, and the cost support of oil - based production is insufficient [1][25] - Strategy: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell hedges at high prices. Short - term follow - up with cost rebounds. Pay attention to the range of PP [6600 - 6800] [25] PVC - Core View: Bearish Rebound [1] - Main Logic: Low - valuation support, but single - product losses are increasing, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is continuously compressed. The export volume in September maintained a high growth rate, and there is an expectation of rush - exporting during the Indian policy window period. New production capacity has been basically released this year, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the upstream marginal devices can reduce production beyond expectations to alleviate the oversupply contradiction [1][29] - Strategy: The market maintains a high contango structure. The industry should conduct hedging at high prices. Short - term lightly participate in rebounds. Pay attention to the range of V [4600 - 4800] [29] PX - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: The supply side has seen a continuous reduction in the operating load of domestic and foreign devices. The demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are at relatively high levels this year. The oil price has rebounded, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the rebound height may be limited [1][31] - Strategy: Take profits on short - term long positions, look for opportunities to arrange short positions at high prices, and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities by expanding downstream processing margins (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to the range of PX [6530 - 6630] [31][32] PTA - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: A new device is about to be put into production, but the processing fee is low, and the device maintenance intensity is expected to increase. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but the stability is to be observed. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. The internal upward driving force is limited in the short term, and it follows the oil price fluctuations [2][34] - Strategy: Take profits on previous long positions. Look for opportunities to arrange short positions on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities by expanding TA processing margins (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to the range of TA [4550 - 4630] [2][35] Ethylene Glycol - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, and overseas devices have slightly increased their loads. New devices are being put into production, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. The terminal consumption has improved in the short term, but the stability is to be observed. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. The valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward driving force [2][37] - Strategy: Close short - term long positions and look for opportunities to arrange short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [4050 - 4120] [2][38] Methanol - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: High inventory suppresses the spot price, and the port basis is still weak. The supply side has a certain pressure, and it is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of seasonal production reduction of gas - based methanol in the southwest region and the impact of Iranian "gas restrictions". The demand has slightly improved, and the cost support is weak and stable [2][41] - Strategy: Hold short positions cautiously (take profits in batches at low prices), look for opportunities to arrange long positions on the 01 contract at low prices, and pay attention to MA1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to the range of MA [2210 - 2260] [2][43] Urea - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [3] - Main Logic: The supply is relatively loose, and the daily production is expected to return to a high level. The domestic agricultural demand has slightly improved, and the export is still good. The inventory is continuously accumulating, and the cost support still exists. However, the winter agricultural demand and export may have limited positive effects [3][45] - Strategy: Hold short positions cautiously, and lightly try long positions in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of UR [1625 - 1650] [3][47] Natural Gas - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [6] - Main Logic: Geopolitical sanctions risks have been released, and the cost - side oil price has corrected. The demand is expected to increase with the cooling of the weather, but the supply is sufficient [6] - Strategy: No specific strategy is mentioned in the text Asphalt - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [6] - Main Logic: It follows the cost - side oil price correction. The supply - demand fundamentals are relatively loose, and the valuation is relatively high [6] - Strategy: Buy put options [6] Glass - Core View: Bearish Rebound [6] - Main Logic: After the festival, the enterprise inventory has increased counter - seasonally for three consecutive weeks, and the market has turned into a contango structure. The domestic demand is weak, and the supply is under pressure [6] - Strategy: In the short term, rely on the 5 - day moving average for short - term long positions, and be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [6] Soda Ash - Core View: Bearish Rebound [6] - Main Logic: It rebounds following the black building materials sector. The factory inventory has slightly decreased, but the absolute level is still high. The demand is mostly rigid, and the supply is expected to increase [6] - Strategy: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell at high prices. Continue to hold long positions in the alkali - glass spread [6]
中辉能化观点-20251029
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-10-29 05:05