Guoxin Securities·2025-10-29 05:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's coal and coal chemical businesses have shown significant improvement, leading to a notable recovery in performance. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 110.58 billion yuan, down 21.2% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.49 billion yuan, down 14.6% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 36.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.8% year-on-year but an increase of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 4.78 billion yuan, down 1.0% year-on-year but up 28.3% quarter-on-quarter [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Coal Business - The company's self-produced coal production and sales remained relatively stable. In Q3 2025, the total coal production was 34.24 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.7%. The sales volume of commodity coal was 61.68 million tons, down 14.3% year-on-year and 4.4% quarter-on-quarter. The average selling price for self-produced thermal coal and coking coal was 442 yuan/ton and 993 yuan/ton, respectively, with year-on-year decreases of 46 yuan/ton and 183 yuan/ton, but quarter-on-quarter increases of 23 yuan/ton and 150 yuan/ton. The unit sales cost for self-produced commodity coal was 247 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton year-on-year and 9 yuan/ton quarter-on-quarter [2] Coal Chemical Business - The coal chemical business saw significant improvement in profitability due to a decrease in methanol costs. In Q3 2025, the sales volumes of major coal chemical products such as polyolefins, urea, methanol, and ammonium nitrate showed mixed results, with respective changes of +6.2%, -3.7%, +6.4%, and -17.5% quarter-on-quarter. The gross profit for the coal chemical business in Q3 2025 was 700 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 87% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 52% [3] Financial Forecasts - The profit forecasts have been raised due to higher-than-expected coal prices since the peak season. The expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 17.0 billion yuan, 18.2 billion yuan, and 19.1 billion yuan, respectively, up from previous estimates of 16.2 billion yuan, 16.5 billion yuan, and 17.2 billion yuan. The company is expected to maintain strong performance in both coal and coal chemical businesses, with significant potential for increased dividend payouts [3][4]