新能源及有色金属日报：有色整体回落，铜价或陷震荡格局-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Suspended [8] - Options: short put @ 83,000 yuan/ton [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous sector led by precious metals had a correction yesterday. Copper prices were dragged down by the sharp decline in gold, and high copper prices increased downstream wait - and - see sentiment. So, a relatively neutral attitude is taken towards copper prices for now [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On October 28, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 88,160 yuan/ton and closed at 86,980 yuan/ton, a - 1.57% drop from the previous trading day's close. The night - session of the same day opened at 87,220 yuan/ton and closed at 87,910 yuan/ton, a 1.07% increase from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 120 to a premium of 10 yuan/ton against the 2511 contract, with an average discount of 55 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The spot price range was 87,620 - 88,190 yuan/ton. The procurement and sales sentiment slightly recovered as holders lowered prices. Downstream buyers were mainly for rigid demand, and some traders replenished stocks at low prices. It is expected that the market sentiment will stabilize after the copper price correction, and the room for further narrowing of the spot discount is limited [2]. 3.1.3 Important Information Summaries - US government: The US Senate failed to pass the procedural vote on the "2025 Fiscal Year Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act" for the 13th time, and the government shutdown will continue. Employment market: ADP will launch weekly employment data, and the first report showed that the US private - sector employment increased by an average of 14,250 in the four weeks ending October 11 [3]. 3.2 Mining End - On October 27, Harmony gold completed the acquisition of MAC Copper, the owner of the high - grade CSA copper mine in New South Wales, Australia, for $1.01 billion. Harmony will integrate the CSA copper mine into its asset portfolio, update its operating performance and key development milestones in early 2026, and disclose the complete mine plan in August 2026 [4]. 3.3 Smelting and Import - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) pointed out that the copper market is experiencing serious mine supply disruptions this year, and the cumulative impact will be fully felt in 2026, pushing the global copper market back into a supply shortage. Although the demand growth in 2026 is expected to be weak (only 2.1%), the copper market will turn into a 150,000 - ton supply shortage in 2026 after two years of surplus. Currently, the copper market is still in surplus, and the expected surplus in 2025 has been revised down from 289,000 tons to 178,000 tons [5]. 3.4 Consumption - China Power Construction is participating in the construction of the UAE RTC photovoltaic - energy storage project, which includes a 5.2GW photovoltaic power station and a 19GWh battery energy storage system. China Power Construction is responsible for the northern block (2.1GW photovoltaic + 7.6GWh energy storage). The project is expected to be put into operation in 2027 [6]. 3.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 575 tons to 134,575 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 454 tons to 35,846 tons. On October 28, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 184,500 tons, a change of 2,900 tons from the previous week [7].