化工日报：反内卷会议预期下，PTA加工费反弹-20251029

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The PTA processing fee rebounded under the expectation of the anti-involution meeting. With the concentrated release of production capacity this year, the PTA processing fee was compressed to a low level, and most enterprises were in a loss state. The PTA overcapacity and low processing fee pattern are expected to gradually reverse in 2026 [1] - The recent rebound in crude oil prices was mainly due to the intensified sanctions on Russia by the US and the EU, but the contradiction of oversupply in the crude oil market has emerged, and the upward momentum of oil prices is insufficient. The PXN rebound space is limited, and the PTA processing fee was compressed to a low level due to the commissioning of new plants. The market is paying attention to anti-involution policies [2] - The polyester operating rate remained stable, domestic sales orders improved, and the inventory of filament yarn decreased significantly. The profit of PF production increased, the inventory continued to decline, and the processing margin was moderately compressed. The bottle chip processing fee was expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the raw material price fluctuations and new production capacity release [3][4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - The report presents the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, as well as the PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread [9][10] 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It shows PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] 4. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It provides information on the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operating rates in China and Asia [27][30][32] 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report shows the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, and various warehouse receipt inventories of PTA, PX, and PF [36][39][40] 6. Downstream Polyester Load - It presents the production and sales of filament and staple fiber, polyester load, various factory inventory days of filament, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [48][50][60] 7. PF Detailed Data - The report includes the load of polyester staple fiber, factory equity inventory days, physical and equity inventories of 1.4D, and the operating rates and profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [72][71][86] 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It shows the polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip inventory days of factories, spot and export processing fees of bottle chips, export profit, and various month - to - month spreads of bottle chips [90][95][102]