氯碱日报：烧碱现货价格稳中有降-20251029

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - PVC has rebounded with macro - sentiment. The supply is abundant with new capacities coming online, and the demand has improved but the trading atmosphere is average. The export shows resilience but PVC product exports may be affected by anti - dumping investigations. The futures price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to relevant policies [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply is affected by new capacities and maintenance, and the demand is affected by the weakening of alumina. The non - aluminum demand will turn weak, but the potential new alumina plants may support the price [3]. Group 3: Summary of Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4716 yuan/ton (-30), the East China basis is -86 yuan/ton (+30), and the South China basis is -6 yuan/ton (+30) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4630 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4710 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 740 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -52 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is -723 yuan/ton (-10), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is -560 yuan/ton (-8), and the PVC export profit is -3.7 dollars/ton (-1.0) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 33.4 tons (-2.7), the social PVC inventory is 55.5 tons (-0.2), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 71.65% (-3.08%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 78.56% (+2.46%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 73.74% (-1.40%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 63.5 tons (+8.0) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2341 yuan/ton (-25), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 159 yuan/ton (+25) [1]. - Spot price: The 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 1250 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 925.8 yuan/ton (-40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 133.78 yuan/ton (+10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1135.25 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 41.43 tons (+1.10), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.45 tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda operation rate is 80.80% (-0.60%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 86.27% (+0.05%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 67.31% (+0.55%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 88.61% (+0.00%) [2]. Group 4: Summary of Strategies PVC - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Inter - delivery: Sell the V01 contract and buy the V05 contract when the spread is high. - Inter - commodity: None [4]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Inter - delivery: Wait and see. - Inter - commodity: None [5].