FICC日报：“十五五”规划建议稿发布-20251029

Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall neutral rating for commodities and stock index futures [3] Core Viewpoints - The release of the "15th Five-Year Plan" draft proposal boosts market sentiment, with an expected average GDP growth rate of around 5% during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The US economy shows resilience and its easing pace is relatively smooth, but the US government shutdown event needs continuous attention [1] - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. Pay attention to possible breakthrough directions for non-ferrous metals and energy in the second half of inflation. Different commodity sectors have different fundamentals [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The "15th Five-Year Plan" draft proposal aims for significant achievements in high - quality development, etc. The full text of the proposal includes measures like promoting key technology breakthroughs and boosting consumption. The A - share market had a volatile day with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly reaching 4000 points [1] - US economic data shows resilience, with the Fed's easing pace potentially smooth. The US government shutdown has entered its 28th day, and the "small non - farm" ADP launches weekly employment data [1] Commodity Analysis - Black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations. Non - ferrous sector is limited in long - term supply but boosted by global easing expectations. Energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term. Chemicals' "anti - involution" space is worth attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations. Precious metals may enter a consolidation phase [2] Strategy - Overall neutral rating for commodities and stock index futures [3] Important News - The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal includes education expansion and improvement measures. China and ASEAN sign the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol. The central bank and the CSRC announce relevant policies [4] - The market rebounds, with about 3000 stocks rising and a trading volume of 1.66 trillion. Japan announces a list of potential projects for a $550 billion investment in the US. Mexico and the US extend the agreement deadline [4] Macroeconomic Charts - Include charts such as the Citi Economic Surprise Index, 30 - major - city commercial housing transaction area, and US - China bond spreads [5][7][10] Interest Rate Charts - Include charts of 10Y and 2Y US - China bond spreads [14] Foreign Exchange Charts - Include charts of the US dollar's weekly exchange - rate changes against major currencies and the US dollar index [17][18]