丙烯日报：油价下跌，拖累丙烯现货市场交投氛围-20251029

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The decline in oil prices has dragged down the trading atmosphere in the propylene spot market. The supply of propylene is expected to increase, while demand is mainly rigid due to price fluctuations and profit pressures. The cost - side support is weakening, and there is insufficient short - term upward drive. It is necessary to continue to monitor the impact of the cost side and the start - stop status of PDH plants [1][2] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, conduct counter - arbitrage when PL01 - 02 is high, and there is no cross - variety strategy [3] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures involve the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil major refinery capacity utilization rate [17][25][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Relevant figures are the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Figures cover the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [42][44][47] 5. Propylene Inventory - Relevant figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [66]