新能源及有色金属日报：消费端表现一般，多晶硅下游价格承压-20251029

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are average, with the spot price remaining stable. The inventory increased significantly in October due to increased production in the Northwest and non - dry season in the Southwest. The market is expected to improve after the Southwest starts to cut production at the end of October. If there are relevant policies, the industrial silicon futures may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with large inventory pressure. Although production may decrease in November, downstream production may also weaken. Mid - to long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices [2][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 28, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8960 yuan/ton and closed at 8955 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous settlement. The main contract 2511 had a position of 211,670 lots at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts was 48,044, down 141 from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with prices in various regions unchanged [1] - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 10,800 - 11,200 yuan/ton, and the domestic market transaction price was in the range of 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton, with the price center slightly moving down [1] Strategy - Short - term interval operation is recommended. For contracts during the dry season, long positions can be taken at low prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 28, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2601 fluctuated, opening at 54,325 yuan/ton and closing at 54,355 yuan/ton, up 1.58% from the previous day. The position of the main contract reached 114,932 lots, and the trading volume was 208,200 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable [3] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 258,000 tons, up 1.98% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.47GW, up 6.70% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon production was 29,500 tons, down 4.84% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer production was 14.73GW, up 2.65% month - on - month [3] - The price of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable, but the price of 210R silicon wafers showed signs of weakness [3][4] Strategy - Short - term interval operation is recommended. The 11th main contract will fluctuate between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the 12th contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options. In the medium - to long - term, long positions can be laid out at low prices [5]