燃料油日报：俄罗斯供应边际收紧，关注制裁影响-20251029

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.74% at 2,818 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.71% at 3,273 yuan/ton. After the continuous rebound of crude oil prices, resistance emerged again, and the FU and LU markets adjusted accordingly. Due to the current macro uncertainties, caution is advised [1]. - The current fundamental situation of fuel oil shows that "high - sulfur is stronger than low - sulfur". High - sulfur fuel oil production in Russia has been affected by drone attacks, leading to unplanned maintenance in several refineries and a marginal tightening of supply. Russia's high - sulfur fuel oil shipments in October are expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous month. The impact of sanctions on Russian supply is difficult to quantify, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has certain support [1]. - The fundamentals and market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil have been weak recently. However, with the restart of the RFCC unit at the Dangote refinery, the local supply pressure is expected to ease marginally, and the downside space based on the current valuation level is limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.74% at 2,818 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.71% at 3,273 yuan/ton [1]. - After the continuous rebound of crude oil prices, resistance emerged, and the FU and LU markets adjusted. Due to macro uncertainties, caution is needed [1]. - The fundamental situation of fuel oil is "high - sulfur is stronger than low - sulfur". High - sulfur fuel oil supply in Russia has tightened marginally due to refinery maintenance. Russia's high - sulfur fuel oil shipments in October are expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous month. The impact of sanctions on Russian supply is hard to quantify, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has support [1]. - The fundamentals and market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil are weak, but with the restart of the RFCC unit at the Dangote refinery, the local supply pressure is expected to ease marginally, and the downside space based on the current valuation is limited [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]