油脂日报：棕榈油出口减少，价格震荡偏弱-20251029

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View - The prices of the three major oils were fluctuating weakly yesterday. The increase in Malaysian palm oil production and a slight decrease in exports are expected to lead to continued inventory accumulation in October, exerting certain pressure on the palm oil futures market [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Market - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8,958.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 142 yuan or -1.56% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,182.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.00 yuan or -0.63%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,730.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.00 yuan or -0.18% [1] Spot Market - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,860.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140.00 yuan or -1.56%, with a spot basis of P01 + -98.00, an increase of 2.00 yuan compared to the previous day; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,360.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60.00 yuan/ton or -0.71%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 178.00, a decrease of 8.00 yuan compared to the previous day; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,070.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan or -0.20%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 340.00, a decrease of 2.00 yuan compared to the previous day [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Palm Oil Production and Export - According to SPPOMA data, from October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.78% compared to the same period last month. According to ITS, SGS, and Amspec data, the estimated palm oil export volume from Malaysia from October 1 - 25, 2025, decreased by -0.36%, increased by 23.8%, and decreased by -0.27% respectively compared to the same period last month [2] - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) stated on Tuesday that Indonesia's palm oil inventory in August decreased slightly to 2.54 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month. The decrease in production offset the decrease in export volume. In August, Indonesia's palm oil export volume was 3.47 million tons, a 1.8% decrease from the previous month, and the crude palm oil production was 5.06 million tons. Due to favorable weather conditions, GAPKI expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by 10% in 2025 [2] Agricultural Situation in China - According to the Information Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the agricultural and rural economy in the first three quarters generally maintained stable operation. The annual grain output is expected to have another good harvest. Summer grain production was stable and achieved a good harvest, with a yield of 299.48 billion catties. Early rice production increased, with a yield of 57.03 billion catties, an increase of 0.68 billion catties or 1.2% compared to the previous year. The area of autumn grain increased, especially the area of high - yielding corn increased significantly. In most agricultural areas this year, the light, temperature, and water conditions were favorable, and the autumn grain production situation in the three northeastern provinces, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang was relatively good. Recently, local areas have carefully organized the autumn grain harvest, and more than 85% of the harvest has been completed. Efforts have been made to deal with the continuous rainy weather in the Huanghuaihai region, and all - out efforts have been made to harvest and dry the grains to minimize the impact of disasters. The achievements of soybean and oilseed expansion have been continuously consolidated. It is expected that the soybean planting area will remain above 150 million mu for four consecutive years, and the output will continue to remain above 20 million tons; the area, yield per unit, and total output of summer oilseeds have all increased [2]