集运日报：SCFIS上涨，但对11月涨价落地持观望状态，盘面宽幅震荡，符合日报反弹预期，不建议加仓，设置好止损。-20251029

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the SCFIS has rebounded significantly again, due to strong wait - and - see sentiment, the situation of price increases in November is unclear, and the market is oscillating weakly. The core now is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [1][5]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect. The key is the trend of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottom - building process [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Freight Indexes - On October 27, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1312.71 points, up 15.1% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1107.32 points, up 28.2% from the previous period [2]. - On October 24, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1403.46 points, up 93.14 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European line was 1246 USD/TEU, up 8.8% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 2153 USD/FEU, up 11.2% from the previous period [3]. - On October 24, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 977.21 points, up 2.17% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 822.3 points, up 2.38% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1293.75 points, up 3.13% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 992.74 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1293.12 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 736.23 points, up 1.5% from the previous period [4]. b. Economic Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [5]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the manufacturing sentiment improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [5]. - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52, the August final value was 53; the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9, the August final value was 54.5; the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6, the August final value was 54.6 [5]. c. Market Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try to build positions below 1500 for the EC2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses. [5] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5]. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [5]. d. Contract Information - On October 28, the main contract 2512 closed at 1788.3, with a decline of 0.66%, a trading volume of 26,000 lots, and an open interest of 28,900 lots, an increase of 905 lots from the previous day [5]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].