尿素早评：情绪好转反转存疑-20251029

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The sentiment of urea has improved, but the supply-demand situation suggests that a reversal may not have arrived yet. The current low valuation reflects the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after hitting a five-year low, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. If prices continue to fall, it may lead to a further decline in upstream production willingness and accelerate corporate self-clearance. In the short term, there is insufficient upward driving force for urea, with large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream buyers are cautious about restocking at low prices. Future potential driving factors include the expectation of old equipment renovation in the chemical industry on the supply side and the possibility of new export quotas [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Futures Prices: UR01 in Shanxi decreased from 1640.00 yuan/ton to 1635.00 yuan/ton (-0.30%), UR05 decreased from 1713.00 yuan/ton to 1708.00 yuan/ton (-0.29%), and UR09 decreased from 1745.00 yuan/ton to 1736.00 yuan/ton (-0.52%) [1] - Domestic Spot Prices: In Northeast China, it increased from 1600.00 yuan/ton to 1610.00 yuan/ton (0.63%); in Jiangsu, it decreased from 1610.00 yuan/ton to 1600.00 yuan/ton (-0.62%); prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased from -103.00 yuan/ton to -98.00 yuan/ton, and the spread between 01 - 05 remained unchanged [1] 3. Upstream Costs - The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030.00 yuan/ton and 880.00 yuan/ton respectively [1] 4. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900.00 yuan/ton and 2500.00 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong remained unchanged at 5084.00 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu, it increased from 5100.00 yuan/ton to 5150.00 yuan/ton (0.98%) [1] 5. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1636 yuan/ton, the highest was 1645 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1626 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1635 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1635 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 273001 lots [1] 6. Trading Strategy - Hold the previously sold out-of-the-money put options (Viewpoint Score: 0) [1]