【国富期货早间看点】GAPKI印尼8月棕榈油库存降至254万吨 Anec预计巴西10月大豆出口700万吨-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, along with important fundamental information including weather, production, inventory, and export data. It also covers macro - economic news from both international and domestic fronts, as well as details on capital flows and futures market arbitrage tracking [1][3][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - Futures: The closing prices and price changes of multiple futures contracts are reported, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 01 (BMD) was 4290.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.30% and an overnight decline of 0.58% [1]. - Currencies: The latest prices and price changes of multiple currencies are provided, such as the US dollar index, Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah, Brazilian real, Argentine peso, and Singapore dollar [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - Futures - Spot: Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions are given. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9070, with a basis of 90 and a basis change of 0 [3]. - Imported Soybeans: CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different regions are presented, with Brazilian soybeans having a CNF premium of 250 cents per bushel and a CNF quote of 490 dollars per ton [3]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - Weather: The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states (November 2 - 6) shows uneven temperature distribution and mostly normal or below - median precipitation. The US Midwest will have sporadic showers and brief cooling this week. Brazilian central regions are expected to see rainfall again, which is beneficial for soybean planting [4][6][7]. - Production, Inventory, and Export: GAPKI predicts that Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 will increase by 10% to about 5,600 million tons, and exports will be 3,000 - 3,100 million tons. In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased to 254 million tons. As of Sunday, the estimated completion of US soybean and corn harvests are 84% and 72% respectively. Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports in October are expected to be 700 million tons and 208 million tons respectively [8][9]. - Other Information: The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state from October 20 - 24 was 467.42 Brazilian reals per ton. The EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed from October 2025 - 26 are lower than the same period last year. Nepal's exports to India increased by 137.9% in the first quarter of the 2025 - 26 fiscal year, mainly driven by soybean oil exports. The Baltic Dry Index continued to decline on Tuesday [9][10][11]. - Trading and Inventory: On October 28, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 16,900 tons, a 35% increase. The trading volume of soybean meal in major oil mills across the country was 113,400 tons, an increase of 17,200 tons. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate was 64.01%, a decrease of 1.96%. The national soybean oil port inventory on October 28 was 1234,000 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons [12]. 3.4 Macro - economic News - International News: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 99.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut in December is 91.6%. The average number of newly added US jobs is estimated to be 14,250. The US October unemployment rate is estimated to be 4.35%. There are also data on US retail sales, manufacturing index, consumer confidence index, housing price index, and API crude oil inventory [14]. - Domestic News: On October 28, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0856, down 25 points. The People's Bank of China conducted 475.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 315.8 billion yuan [16]. 3.5 Capital Flows On October 28, 2025, the net capital outflow from the futures market was 17.622 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 11.52 billion yuan from commodity futures (1.152 billion yuan from agricultural product futures, a net outflow of 467 million yuan from chemical futures, a net outflow of 1.183 billion yuan from black - series futures, and a net outflow of 10.546 billion yuan from metal futures), a net outflow of 7.354 billion yuan from stock index futures, and a net inflow of 1.256 billion yuan from treasury bond futures [19]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No detailed information provided other than the section title.