新能源及有色金属日报：需求不振，沪镍不锈钢价格回落-20251029

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - Due to high inventory and persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Demand continues to be weak, and cost support is weakening, so stainless - steel prices are predicted to stay in a bottom - level oscillation trend [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - Market Analysis - On October 28, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2512 opened at 122,060 yuan/ton and closed at 120,560 yuan/ton, a - 1.44% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 156,296 (+26,763) lots, and the open interest was 115,046 (+6,057) lots [1]. - The Shanghai nickel main contract showed a pattern of opening low and moving lower, with weak oscillation. Although factors such as progress in China - US economic and trade consultations and rising expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cut boosted risk appetite, the differentiation in macro - sentiment led to the contract's failure to continue the upward trend of overseas markets and instead pulled back due to domestic fundamentals [2]. - In the nickel ore market, there are price differences, and prices remain stable. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area is about to enter the rainy season, and shipping is winding down; northern mines are mostly starting tender sales. Some downstream iron plants have the intention to replenish stocks but are in a price - pressing mindset due to production pressure. In Indonesia, the October (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the mainstream premium remained at +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27. Affected by the local rainy season and next - year's production preparations, Indonesian factories have recently been actively purchasing raw materials, and some are still tendering in the Philippines [2]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 930 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of various brands mostly declined. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to 2,300 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 31,385 (+1,605) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 251,436 (+198) tons [2]. - Strategy - With high inventory and a supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy is mainly range - bound operations for unilateral trading, and no operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - Market Analysis - On October 28, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2512 opened at 12,800 yuan/ton and closed at 12,750 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 97,090 (-61,294) lots, and the open interest was 100,253 (-4,171) lots [3]. - The stainless - steel main contract showed a weak - oscillation trend. The market's insufficient digestion of short - term positive factors, combined with fundamental pressure and weak bullish confidence, along with the decline of Shanghai nickel, led to the stainless - steel contract following the downward trend [3]. - Spot prices also declined with the futures market. Due to continued sluggish trading, spot quotes further decreased. According to SMM, affected by the market downturn, many stainless - steel plants announced production cuts, mainly for 200 - series stainless steel. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,900 (-150) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,950 (-100) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was between 225 and 525 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 926.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - Strategy - Due to weak demand and weakening cost support, stainless - steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - level oscillation. The recommended strategy for unilateral trading is neutral, and no operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].