新能源及有色金属日报：仓单小幅去化，碳酸锂盘面高位震荡-20251029

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The recent futures market has been rebounding due to factors such as inventory reduction, early cancellation of warehouse receipts, slower - than - expected resumption of previously shut - down mines, and strong consumption support. The short - term supply - demand situation is favorable, and the inventory is continuously decreasing, providing some support to the market. However, after the recent continuous rise in the futures market, the futures price is much higher than the spot price. It is expected that the willingness of upstream producers to conduct hedging will increase when the price reaches 80,000 yuan/ton. The market needs to pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and mines resume production, the inventory may shift from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, causing the market to decline [2]. Summary According to the Directory Market Analysis - On October 28, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 was 81,600 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 81,640 yuan/ton, a 0.69% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 729,307 lots, and the open interest was 488,803 lots, compared with 483,478 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was - 4,740 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 27,335 lots, a decrease of 404 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 76,900 - 80,100 yuan/ton, a change of 1,950 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 75,700 - 76,900 yuan/ton, a change of 2,000 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 955 US dollars/ton, a change of 13 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - The downstream material factories' operating rates are continuously rising, and the demand supports the spot transactions. In terms of supply, new production lines have been put into operation at both the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and the total lithium carbonate production in October is expected to continue to grow. In terms of demand, both the commercial and passenger new - energy vehicles in the power market are growing rapidly, and the energy - storage market has strong supply and demand [1]. Strategy - The futures market has been rebounding recently due to factors such as inventory reduction, early cancellation of warehouse receipts, slower - than - expected resumption of previously shut - down mines, and strong consumption support. Currently, the peak consumption season provides some support, and the short - term supply - demand situation is good with continuous inventory reduction, which supports the market. After the recent continuous rise in the futures market, the futures price is much higher than the spot price, and it is expected that the willingness of upstream producers to conduct hedging will increase when the price reaches 80,000 yuan/ton. The market needs to pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. It is expected that the cell production schedule in November will increase month - on - month, and the cathode material production schedule will remain flat or slightly decrease month - on - month. If consumption weakens and mines resume production, the inventory may shift from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, causing the market to decline [2]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, and sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices when appropriate [4]. - Inter - delivery spread: No relevant strategy provided. - Cross - commodity: No relevant strategy provided. - Spot - futures: No relevant strategy provided. - Options: No relevant strategy provided.