Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR, as well as BR, are both neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - The cost support for natural rubber remains strong, but in the peak - season, the supply is expected to increase. The overall supply - demand in China may show a pattern of both supply and demand booming. If the arrival volume rebounds later, the depletion of domestic social inventory will slow down or even accumulate again. Currently, the valuations of RU and NR in China are low, and prices are expected to move within a range. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities for the month - spread. For BR, the cost is dragged down by the decline in butadiene prices, but there are still many device overhauls, and the supply - side support is expected to remain. The supply - demand may improve to some extent, and the downward adjustment space is expected to be limited [7] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,360 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,530 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,805 yuan/ton, a change of - 190 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,700 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,880 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,770 US dollars/ton, with no change. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,900 yuan/ton, with no change [1] Market Information Heavy - truck Market - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, setting a new high for the same period in recent years [2] Natural Rubber Imports - In September 2025, China's natural rubber (including technically specified rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] Thailand's Natural Rubber Exports - In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 199,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber was 111,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheets was 30,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 55,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total export of natural rubber to China was 75,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the export of standard rubber to China was 45,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the export of smoked sheets to China was 9,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the export of latex to China was 19,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [2] Automobile Production and Sales - In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. For the first time in the same period in history, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million vehicles, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [3] Rubber Tire Exports - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 728,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 702,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Calculated by the number of pieces, the export volume was 5.3491 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires in the first three quarters was 622,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [3] EU Passenger Car Market - In September 2025, the sales volume of the EU passenger car market increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales volume in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On October 28, 2025, the RU basis was - 660 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 380 yuan/ton (+0), the import profit of smoked sheets was - 3340 yuan/ton (- 3340.25), the NR basis was 791.00 yuan/ton (+5.00); the price of whole latex was 14,700 yuan/ton (+0), the price of mixed rubber was 14,980 yuan/ton (- 20), the price of 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,880 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 500 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3580 yuan/ton (- 20) [4] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 60.06 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), the price of Thai latex was 55.00 Thai baht/kg (+0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 53.35 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), and the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 1.65 Thai baht/kg (+0.30) [5] - Operating Rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.87% (+1.91%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.84% (+1.77%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 124,020 tons (- 10,980), and the NR futures inventory was 42,640 tons (+2,521) [6] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On October 28, 2025, the BR basis was - 5 yuan/ton (+190), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,300 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,900 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,650 yuan/ton (- 30), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 2040 yuan/ton (- 100) [6] - Operating Rates: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 71.71% (- 2.12%) [6] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,520 tons (- 340), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 28,650 tons (+750) [6]
化工日报：原料价格继续回升，天然橡胶成本支撑强-20251029
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-29 05:14