农产品日报：美豆价格上涨，豆粕偏强震荡-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both the粕 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn sectors are "cautiously bearish" [3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints - For the粕 market, the current domestic fundamentals have not changed significantly. The domestic arrival volume is relatively sufficient, and the inventory of soybeans and bean meal remains at a relatively high level, with overall supply being relatively loose. Key factors to watch include the Sino - US negotiation situation, policy changes, and the sowing progress of new - season Brazilian soybeans [2] - For the corn market, on the supply side, due to the previous decline in the corn price at the northern ports, farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain was relatively low, but this week, the price in the Northeast region has shown a slightly stronger trend, and farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain has slightly recovered. In the North China region, the impact of the weather has subsided, the risk of grain spoilage has significantly decreased, and the pace of selling wet grain has slowed down. On the demand side, the inventory of channels, ports, deep - processing enterprises, and feed enterprises all remains at a low level, but the willingness to stock up is low [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 粕 Market 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 2975 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 1.47% from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2396 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan/ton or 2.61% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the spot price of bean meal was 3000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M01 + 25, down 33 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2930 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 45, down 13 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 2950 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 25, down 3 from the previous day. In Fujian, the spot price of rapeseed meal was 2600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM01 + 204, down 11 from the previous day [1] - Market News: As of last Thursday, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans for the 2025/26 season reached 36% of the expected sown area, the same as the same period last year, and up from 24% the previous week. As of the week ending October 23, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.061 million tons, with a previous market forecast of 1 - 1.5 million tons, and the revised figure for the previous week was 1.59 million tons [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis The current domestic fundamentals have not changed much, with sufficient arrival volume, high inventory of soybeans and bean meal, and relatively loose overall supply. Key factors to watch are the Sino - US negotiation situation, policy changes, and the sowing progress of new - season Brazilian soybeans [2] 3.1.3 Strategy Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn Market 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2123 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.52% from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2424 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the spot price of corn was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C11 + 17, down 21 from the previous day; in Jilin, the spot price of corn starch was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS11 + 126, up 1 from the previous day [3] - Market News: As of October 23, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 55%, up from 51% the previous week and 53% in the same period last year. As of the week ending October 23, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1.187 million tons, with a previous market forecast of 1.1 - 2.05 million tons, and the revised figure for the previous week was 1.325 million tons [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis On the supply side, farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain in the Northeast has slightly recovered, and the pace of selling wet grain in North China has slowed down. On the demand side, the inventory of various sectors is low, but the willingness to stock up is low [4][5] 3.2.3 Strategy Cautiously bearish [6]