Tianfeng Securities·2025-10-29 05:48Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company has experienced a rebound in profits on a quarter-on-quarter basis due to rising coal prices and cost reductions in coal chemical operations, despite a year-on-year decline in profits [1][2] - The coal segment has seen a revenue of 89.33 billion yuan from January to September 2025, a decrease of 24.2% year-on-year, with a notable drop in trading coal revenue [2] - The company maintains strong cost control, with a unit sales cost of self-produced coal at 257.67 yuan/ton, down 10.1% year-on-year [2] - The coal chemical segment has shown stable operations, with production and sales of various products reflecting the integrated advantages of coal and coal chemicals [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 36.148 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.26% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2025 was 4.78 billion yuan, down 1.0% year-on-year, but up 28.26% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 17.502 billion, 17.699 billion, and 18.240 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.32, 1.33, and 1.38 yuan per share [3][4] Revenue and Cost Analysis - The coal business's revenue for the first nine months of 2025 was 89.333 billion yuan, with self-produced coal sales revenue at 48.127 billion yuan and trading coal revenue at 41.182 billion yuan [2] - The average selling price per ton of coal for the first nine months was 474 yuan, slightly higher than the 470 yuan reported for the first half of the year [2] - The company produced 101.58 million tons of commodity coal, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.7% [2] Production and Cost Efficiency - The production figures for coal chemicals in the first nine months included 990,000 tons of polyolefins, 1,594,000 tons of urea, 1,478,000 tons of methanol, and 419,000 tons of ammonium nitrate [3] - The cost per ton for polyolefins, urea, and methanol decreased, showcasing the company's cost management capabilities despite rising coal prices [3]