原油月报：短期地缘支撑尚存，油价震荡偏弱运行-20251029

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - Short-term geopolitical risks provide support for oil prices, while the mid-term fundamentals remain loose [2][5]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - In October 2025, oil prices showed a weak fluctuation. Key events impacting prices included the U.S. government shutdown, OPEC+ maintaining production increases of 137,000 barrels per day, and fragile ceasefire agreements in the Middle East [4]. - The report indicates that after the signing of the ceasefire agreement, the Middle East situation has somewhat eased, leading to a partial release of geopolitical risk premiums in oil prices. However, the market remains pessimistic about demand due to renewed tariff threats from the U.S. [4]. OPEC Production - OPEC+ continues to increase production, with a plan to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day in October and November 2025. This indicates an early completion of their recovery plan [8][9]. - In September 2025, OPEC's total crude oil production reached 28,440 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 524 thousand barrels per day from the previous month [9]. Global Oil Demand and Supply Forecast - The EIA forecasts that global oil demand will reach 103.87 million barrels per day in October 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 63.98 million barrels per day. The demand is expected to grow further in 2026 [35]. - The report predicts that global oil supply will increase significantly, with OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries contributing to this growth. The EIA expects a supply surplus in the coming years due to increased production from these regions [26][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic oil companies that are actively exploring and developing oil and gas resources, particularly those with clear production increase targets and potential for overseas market expansion, such as China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC [7].