NOVEL(SZ:002014) HUAXI Securities·2025-10-29 06:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated resilience in its operations, with stable demand in its main plastic flexible packaging business and active expansion into overseas markets and new film materials [3] - The company reported a revenue of 2.706 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 309 million yuan, up 1.43% year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to achieve stable growth driven by its vertical integration strategy and the gradual ramp-up of its film business [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 960 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.02%, and a net profit of 126 million yuan, up 1.00% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 increased by 0.38 percentage points to 24.44%, attributed to cost reductions and a higher proportion of high-margin overseas business [4] - The company’s net profit margin for Q3 2025 decreased by 0.84 percentage points to 13.22%, mainly due to increased operating expenses [4] Growth Drivers - The international market revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 303 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.67%, while the film business generated 369 million yuan, up 20.34% year-on-year [3] - The company is focusing on overseas expansion and the development of new film materials as key growth points [3] Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to be 3.782 billion yuan in 2025, 4.102 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.419 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.79 yuan, 0.86 yuan, and 0.95 yuan respectively [5][7] - The PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated to be 14, 13, and 12 times respectively [5]