Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core Views - Gold and Silver: Due to the easing of Sino - US relations, reduced risk - aversion sentiment, the market's full pricing of central bank interest rate cuts, and the Philippine central bank's intention to sell gold, gold and silver prices are falling. In the short - term, pay attention to the support levels (900 for gold and 11000 for silver). In the long - term, gold's strategic allocation value remains unchanged due to the opening of the interest - rate cut cycle, geopolitical order reshaping, and continued central bank purchases. Silver is affected by gold price fluctuations, and long - term demand is expected to increase due to global policy stimulus [1][3][4]. - Copper: Copper prices have fully priced in the optimistic expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut and the easing of Sino - US relations. In the short - term, it is recommended to move stop - profits for long positions and avoid blind chasing. Be vigilant against the risk of a high - level pullback. In the long - term, copper is still bullish due to tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand [1][7]. - Zinc: With the start of the "super macro week", zinc continues to rebound, but overall demand is weak, and long - term supply is relatively loose. After the short - term macro - policy stimulus fades, the upside space may be limited. In the long - term, zinc supply increases while demand decreases, so it is recommended to sell on rallies [1][10]. - Lead: Lead production enterprises in Hebei and other places are affected by environmental protection controls. Although the downstream terminal consumption peak season is fair, the production cuts of medium and large - scale lead - acid battery enterprises drag down consumption, and lead prices face pressure in the short - term [1]. - Tin: Overseas tin mine production in Myanmar and imports are still restricted. The overall operating rate of Yunnan smelters has rebounded, and the peak consumption season of downstream tin has led to a reduction in tin ingot inventory. Tin prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [1]. - Aluminum: Overseas electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to tighten, while domestic supply is stable. The inventory of aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas continues to decline during the peak season, and supported by the peak - season performance of terminal consumption, aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [1]. - Nickel: Overseas disturbances in Indonesia's nickel ore supply have weakened, and domestic refined nickel supply is sufficient. Pure nickel inventory has significantly accumulated. Although there is some support from the peak consumption season of downstream nickel sulfate, nickel prices are under pressure [1]. - Industrial Silicon: There are no obvious contradictions in the fundamentals. The increase in northern production starts has slowed down, and the number of furnace shutdowns in the south is gradually increasing as the dry season approaches. Downstream demand is flat, and there are expectations of polysilicon production cuts in the future. Prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to operate within a range [1]. - Polysilicon: There is a situation of strong expectations versus weak reality. The lack of further market news on capacity integration has disappointed the market sentiment. However, with effective cost support and firm spot prices, buying on dips is more cost - effective [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term marginal improvement of the fundamentals is highly certain, with total inventory decreasing for 10 consecutive weeks and downstream material factories accelerating raw material inventory consumption. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and buy after sufficient corrections [1][21]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Due to the easing of Sino - US relations, the Philippine central bank's intention to sell gold, and the alleviation of the London silver squeeze, gold and silver prices continue to adjust. Funds are flowing out of the market [2]. - Basic Logic: The results of Sino - US negotiations, the Philippine central bank's plan to sell up to $5 billion of gold reserves, the alleviation of the tight situation in the London silver market (the London silver lease rate dropped from 34.9% to 5.6%), and the upcoming "super central bank week" with the Fed likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points while the European and Japanese central banks maintain existing rates. In the long - term, gold may benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the short - term, pay attention to the stop - falling situation of gold and silver. In China, focus on the 900 support for gold and the 11000 support for silver. Long - term value - oriented positions can be held [4]. Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper fluctuates sharply at a high level [6]. - Industrial Logic: Trump revoked strict emission restrictions on copper smelters set by the Biden administration, and SMM expects a decline in electrolytic copper production in October. High copper prices have led to downstream hesitation, an increase in domestic social copper inventory, and a decline in LME copper inventory. COMEX copper inventory is high but mostly locked. High copper prices also suppress demand, and the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod - making enterprises has declined [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term long positions should move stop - profits to lock in gains. Avoid blind chasing and be vigilant against high - level pullback risks. Long - term strategic long positions can be held. For industrial hedging, options protection can be added, positions can be reduced, and strict risk control should be implemented. In the short - term, Shanghai copper is expected to trade in the range of [85500, 88500] yuan/ton, and LME copper in the range of [10600, 11200] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - Market Review: Zinc continues to rebound, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the 22500 level [9]. - Industrial Logic: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is loose, and overseas zinc mine production in the second quarter increased by 17.72% year - on - year. The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate has declined, and the profit loss of refined zinc enterprises has slightly expanded. The "Silver October" peak season is lackluster, demand is under pressure, and the galvanizing operating rate has declined. The domestic zinc ingot export window is open, and domestic inventory has slightly increased while the risk of a soft squeeze on LME zinc inventory persists [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: With the start of the "super macro week", zinc continues to rebound, but overall demand is weak, and long - term supply is loose. After the short - term macro - policy stimulus fades, the upside space may be limited. Pay attention to the resistance levels at 22500 and 22800. In the long - term, zinc supply increases while demand decreases, so it is a short - side allocation in the sector. Shanghai zinc is expected to trade in the range of [22200, 22800] yuan/ton, and LME zinc in the range of [2980, 3080] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices are under pressure at a high level, and alumina shows a slight stabilization trend [12]. - Industrial Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, there are continued expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity reached 4.405 million tons with an operating rate of 96%. The domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, while the aluminum rod inventory increased. The operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing enterprises remained flat. For alumina, the port inventory of imported bauxite is still at a high level, and some high - cost enterprises are reducing production, but the market remains in an oversupply situation in the short - term [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to take profits on Shanghai aluminum long positions on rallies in the short - term, pay attention to changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of [21000 - 21800] [14]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices are under pressure and weak, and stainless steel faces pressure in its rebound [16]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas, the impact of Indonesia on nickel ore supply has weakened, and nickel ore supply is relatively sufficient. Domestic pure nickel inventory has continued to accumulate significantly. For stainless steel, the peak - season performance in the terminal consumption field needs further observation, and the inventory in major markets has increased. The expected increase in domestic stainless steel production will increase market pressure, and the terminal demand in the spot market is weak [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption, and the main nickel contract is expected to trade in range of [120000 - 122000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC260 has a high - level pullback with a slight increase in positions throughout the day [20]. - Industrial Logic: The marginal improvement of the fundamentals is highly certain, with total inventory decreasing for 10 consecutive weeks and the post - holiday destocking accelerating. Although supply is still increasing, production in Sichuan has slightly decreased due to a shortage of domestic lithium spodumene, and salt - lake production capacity is ramping up. Terminal demand remains strong, and the production of related materials is increasing [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gradually take profits on long positions in the range of [80500 - 82500] [22].
中辉有色观点-20251029
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-10-29 07:42