China Post Securities·2025-10-29 07:49Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 137.67 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.31 billion yuan, up 17.4% year-on-year [4] - The passenger load factor reached a historical high of 85.8%, driven by strong demand for private travel, despite a slight decrease in ticket prices [5] - The decline in international oil prices has helped the company save on costs, with operating costs increasing only 1.6% year-on-year despite a 5.7% increase in capacity [6] - The aviation industry's capacity growth remains constrained, but demand recovery is expected to drive fare performance, leading to a gradual recovery in the aviation sector's fundamentals [7] - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.1 billion yuan, 6.39 billion yuan, and 9.04 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [8] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 6.60 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 119.6 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 83.6 billion yuan [3] - The company has a total share capital of 18.121 billion shares, with 12.673 billion shares in circulation [3] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 84.0% and a current P/E ratio of -73.33 [3]