集运日报：SCFIS上涨，但对11月涨价落地持观望状态，盘面宽幅震荡，符合日报反弹预期，不建议加仓，设置好止损-20251029

Report Overview - Report Date: October 29, 2025 - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Team 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Although SCFIS rebounded significantly again, due to strong wait - and - see sentiment, the implementation of price increases in November is uncertain, and the market is in a weak and volatile state. The core is the trend of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [5]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be at the bottom - building stage, suggesting light - position participation or waiting and seeing [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 SCFIS and NCFI Freight Rate Indexes - On October 27, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1312.71 points, up 15.1% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1107.32 points, up 28.2% from the previous period [2]. - On October 24, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1403.46 points, up 93.14 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1246 USD/TEU, up 8.8% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 2153 USD/FEU, up 11.2% from the previous period [3]. - On October 24, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 977.21 points, up 2.17% from the previous period. The NCFI for the European route was 822.3 points, up 2.38% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1293.75 points, up 3.13% from the previous period [4]. - On October 24, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 992.74 points, up 2.0% from the previous period. The CCFI for the European route was 1293.12 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 736.23 points, up 1.5% from the previous period [4]. 3.2 Economic Data of Different Regions - In the Eurozone, the preliminary manufacturing PMI in September was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary services PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Sentix investor confidence index in September was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [5]. - In China, in August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with the manufacturing prosperity level improving. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of enterprises' production and operation activities has accelerated [5]. - In the US, the preliminary S&P Global manufacturing PMI in September was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary services PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [5]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Short - term Strategy: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try to build positions below 1500 for the EC2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, suggesting light - position participation or waiting and seeing [5]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or try with a light position [5]. - Long - term Strategy: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to pull back and stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [5]. 3.4 Contract Information - On October 28, the main contract 2512 closed at 1788.3, with a decline of 0.66%, a trading volume of 26,000 lots, and an open interest of 28,900 lots, an increase of 905 lots from the previous day [5]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].