纸浆数据日报-20251029

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 domestic needle pulp, and the futures price may be priced based on the Russian needle pulp and high - quality coniferous pulp; maintain the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy [10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On October 28, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2605 were 5226, 4828, and 5270 respectively, with day - on - day changes of - 0.61%, - 0.17%, and - 0.53%, and week - on - week changes of 1.08%, - 0.62%, and 0.84% [5] - The spot prices of coniferous pulp silver star, Russian needle, and broad - leaf pulp Jinge were 2500, 5100, and 4250 respectively, with no day - on - day or week - on - week changes [5] Outer - Disk Quotes and Import Costs - Outer - disk quotes: The quotes of Chilean silver star, Japanese golden, and Chilean Venus were 680, 530, and 590 dollars respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 2.86%, 3.92%, and 0.00% [5] - Import costs: The import costs of Brazilian goldfish and Chilean Venus were 4344 and 4830 respectively, with month - on - month changes of 3.87% and 0.00% [5] Supply - Side Data - In September 2025, the import volumes of coniferous pulp and broad - leaf pulp were 69.1 and 135.6 tons respectively, with month - on - month changes of 12.54% and 7.79% [5] - The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 tons, with a 4.50% increase [5] - The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp in different weeks from August 28 to October 23, 2025, showed certain fluctuations [5] Inventory Data - As of October 23, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 205.5 tons, with a 0.9% decrease compared to the previous period, showing a narrow - range de - stocking trend [5][10] - The inventory in the futures delivery warehouse also showed a certain change trend from August 28 to October 23, 2025 [5] Demand - Side Data - The production volumes of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard from August 28 to October 23, 2025, showed certain fluctuations [5] Valuation Data - On October 28, 2025, the Russian needle pulp basis was 272 with a quantile level of 0.917, and the silver star pulp basis was 672 with a quantile level of 0.892 [5] - The import profits of coniferous pulp silver star and broad - leaf pulp goldfish were - 59 and - 94 respectively, with quantile levels of 0.512 and 0.556 [5] Market Situation - On the supply side, Chile's Arauco company's October coniferous pulp silver star offer was 680 dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 dollars/ton; the broad - leaf pulp star offer was 540 dollars/ton, remaining unchanged [5] - On the demand side, the current demand for paper products is basically stable, the paper product prices have not rebounded significantly, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [10]