Minsheng Securities·2025-10-29 08:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600.SH) with a current price of 65.57 CNY, projecting a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19 for 2025 [6]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 293.7 billion CNY and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 52.7 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 1.4% and 5.7% respectively. In Q3 alone, revenue was 88.8 billion CNY, with a slight decline of 0.2% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 1.6% to 13.7 billion CNY [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Sales Performance - In Q3 2025, the company experienced a slight decline in revenue by 0.2%, with sales volume increasing by 0.3% to 2.16 million kiloliters. The average revenue per kiloliter decreased by 0.5%. The decline in sales was primarily attributed to lower demand for mid-to-low-end products, although the main brand's sales increased by 4.2% to 1.28 million kiloliters, with high-end product sales rising by 6.8% to 0.94 million kiloliters [2][4]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company maintained a downward trend in cost per ton, decreasing by 3.0% year-on-year, mainly due to lower raw material prices. This led to an increase in gross profit margin by 1.4 percentage points to 43.6%. The report noted effective cost control across various expense categories, contributing to an increase in net profit margin by 0.4 percentage points [3][4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the company's operational momentum will gradually improve starting in 2025, with expectations for market share recovery and price improvements. The new management team is expected to implement more flexible and efficient marketing strategies, which could enhance profit margins as capacity utilization rates increase [4][5]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 326.6 billion CNY, 332.2 billion CNY, and 341.5 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 1.6%, 1.7%, and 2.8% respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 46.98 billion CNY, 50.14 billion CNY, and 53.24 billion CNY for the same period, with growth rates of 8.1%, 6.7%, and 6.2% respectively [5][7].