黑色金属数据日报-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market shows a pattern of futures prices rising and then falling, with spot prices slightly increasing. There are positive factors in the macro - level, but the industry faces challenges such as high production and insufficient demand. The resolution of high - production issues requires time to accumulate contradictions [4] - The rebound space of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is limited, and the prices tend to fluctuate. They are affected by factors such as downstream demand, supply - demand balance, and cost [4] - For coking coal and coke, the spot procurement sentiment has slowed down, and the futures are challenging the "anti - involution" trading high. The supply - demand tightness may ease in the future [4] - For iron ore, industrial contradictions are gradually accumulating, and it is necessary to pay attention to the overall sentiment of commodities. There may be an oversupply situation in the fourth quarter [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Futures prices rose and then fell on Tuesday, with spot prices slightly increasing and trading volume shrinking. The macro - level has positive factors, and the industry is in a seasonal destocking phase. However, demand lacks explosive power, and it will take time to resolve high - production problems. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see or oscillatory approach for single - side trading, and observe the opportunity to go long on the spread between hot rolled coils and rebar when the 01 - contract spread is below 150 for arbitrage. Also, perform rolling stop - profit for cash - and - carry arbitrage [4] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Due to weak downstream demand, the black sector is under pressure. Although they rebounded under factors such as good supply - demand, cost support, low valuation, and a warm macro - environment, the rebound space is narrowing. The prices may fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the trading atmosphere is average, and a northwest coking enterprise has initiated the third price increase, but the mainstream coking enterprises have not responded. The procurement sentiment has slowed down. On the futures side, the sector is oscillating, and the prices of coking coal and coke on the disk are weakening. The supply - demand tightness may ease in the future. It is recommended to wait and see, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging for part of the spot when the coke disk is at a premium [4] Iron Ore - There are many trade disputes, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of negotiation results on commodities. The supply side has no major problems, but there may be an oversupply situation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see [4]