Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the initial consensus was reached in the economic and trade consultations between China, the US, and Malaysia, and Wang Yi's phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, market uncertainty was further alleviated, leading to a significant decline in safe - haven demand and continuous profit - taking by investors, which was negative for precious metal prices. The easing of physical tightness in London also put pressure on silver prices. In the short term, precious metal prices may still be under pressure due to the cooling of safe - haven demand, but the further decline space is relatively limited as the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in October and the US government shutdown continues. In the long term, the long - term upward logic of precious metals has not reversed, and investors can consider buying on dips [6]. - In the medium - to - long term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long run. With the continuation of central bank gold purchases, the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price Tracking - Precious Metal Price Changes: On October 28, 2025, compared with October 27, 2025, London gold spot price dropped 3.4% to $3939.85 per ounce, London silver spot price fell 3.6% to $46.58 per ounce, COMEX gold price decreased 3.3% to $3955.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver price declined 3.6% to $46.60 per ounce. In the domestic market, AU2512 dropped 3.5% to 901.38 yuan per gram, AG2512 fell 3.0% to 11049 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) decreased 3.7% to 898.14 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) declined 3.0% to 11035 yuan per kilogram [4]. - Spread and Ratio Changes: From October 27 to October 28, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased 107.7% to - 3.24 yuan per gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price decreased 22.2% to - 14 yuan per kilogram, the spread of gold internal - external market (TD - London) decreased 80.5% to 0.61 yuan per gram, and the spread of silver internal - external market (TD - London) decreased 10.6% to - 845 yuan per kilogram. The SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased 0.5% to 81.58, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio increased 0.3% to 84.90 [4]. Position and Inventory Data - Position Data: From October 24 to October 27, 2025, the position of gold ETF - SPDR decreased 0.77% to 1038.92 tons, and the position of silver ETF - SLV decreased 0.51% to 15340.79428 tons. The non - commercial long position of COMEX gold increased 1.85% to 332808 contracts, the non - commercial short position increased 9.43% to 66059 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position increased 0.13% to 266749 contracts. The non - commercial long position of COMEX silver increased 0.97% to 72318 contracts, the non - commercial short position decreased 0.21% to 20042 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position increased 1.43% to 52276 contracts [4]. - Inventory Data: On October 28, 2025, compared with October 27, 2025, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 87015 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory increased 1.51% to 657427 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.49% to 38687475 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased 0.88% to 492557282 troy ounces [4]. Other Related Market Data - Other Market Index Changes: From October 27 to October 28, 2025, NYMEX crude oil price decreased 0.04%, the US dollar index remained unchanged, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased 0.25%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased 3.54%, the VIX index decreased 0.12%, the S&P 500 index increased 1.23%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased 0.18% [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Short - term Outlook: After the recent significant adjustment of precious metal prices, in the short term, they may still be under pressure due to the cooling of safe - haven demand, but the further decline space is relatively limited. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in October, and the US government shutdown continues. In the long term, the long - term upward logic of precious metals has not reversed, and investors can consider buying on dips [6]. - Medium - to - Long - term Outlook: In the medium - to - long term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long run. With the continuation of central bank gold purchases, the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [7]
贵金属数据日报-20251029
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-10-29 08:49