航运衍生品数据日报-20251029

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The EC market is in a volatile state. The weak volatility this week is due to some airlines starting to lower their quotes for the first ten days of November. The European line is in the regular year - end price - holding stage. The first round of defensive price - holding in late October has initially stopped the decline, and it has now entered the second round in early November. Future price - holding actions are expected in the next two months. However, attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and empty flights in November. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content China Export Container Freight Rates - Rate Index: The present values of SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - Northwest Europe, and the comprehensive index SCFI are 1403, 2153, 3032, 1107, and 1246 respectively, with corresponding increases of 2.02%, 6.27%, 7.11%, 11.21%, and 28.42%. The present values of SCFI - Mediterranean and SCFIS - Northwest Europe are 1312 and 1746 respectively, with increases of 15.09% and 8.25% [3]. Contracts - Contract Price: For contracts EC2506, EC5602, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, the present values are 1482.0, 1374.0, 1788.3, 1548.7, 1162.7 respectively, with changes of - 0.94%, 0.11%, VALUE!, 0.75%, - 1.46% [3][4]. - Contract Position: The present positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604 are 1402, 1313, N/A, 28900, 13910, 14279 respectively, with changes of 31, 64, VALUE!, 905, 772, 133 [4]. - Monthly Spread: The present values of the 10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4 monthly spreads are VALUE!, 239.6, 625.6 respectively, with changes of VALUE!, 36.2, 29.4 [4]. Market News - The US Treasury Secretary has reached a framework agreement with China's vice - premier to avoid 100% US tariffs on Chinese products and extend China's rare - earth export controls. The US President is confident of reaching an agreement with China's leader [5]. - Some shipping companies like CMA CGM, Maersk, and Mediterranean Shipping are re - flagging their vessels to India. The Suez Canal Authority expects its 2026 revenue to reach about $8 billion, up from the current $4 billion. The US and Vietnam have agreed on a trade framework agreement [5]. EC Market - Spot Prices: In late October, Maersk quoted 1800 - 1900, HPL 1900, 00CL 2600, CMA 2100, EMC 2050, NSC 2050, YML 1350, ONE 1450. In early November, ISK quoted 2400, HEJ 2500, CME 2700, OOCJ 2300, EMC 2700, MSC 2250, YML 2250, ONE 2550, HMM 1900 [6]. - Logic and Strategy: The European line is in the year - end price - holding stage. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][7].