Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-29 09:26Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The cost of polysilicon production will increase as the dry season approaches in Southwest China in November, and some enterprises have started to reduce raw material input and production [2]. - The demand side is relatively weak, with the demand for polysilicon from downstream photovoltaic industry chains declining, component tender prices falling, and concentrated projects being postponed [2]. - Although N-type silicon materials maintain a certain premium ability, the price of ordinary materials is approaching the cost line, and the overall gross profit margin of the industry is narrowing [2]. - The high inventory in the European market suppresses import demand, while the US tariff policy has loosened, driving the growth of energy storage system exports, but it is difficult to completely offset the negative impact of the European market [2]. - The demand in emerging markets such as the Middle East and Latin America is surging, buffering the decline in the demand side to some extent [2]. - The rumored policy of strengthening photovoltaic capacity regulation has boosted market confidence, but the specific details and implementation time are still unclear [2]. - There are rumors of downstream photovoltaic capacity integration, which stimulates the increase of polysilicon prices, but the subsequent weakening of the demand side will still have a counter - effect. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Summary by Directory Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 54,990 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 635 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract is 118,430 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 3,498 lots; the basis between December and January contracts is 50 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 45,820 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 420 yuan/ton [2]. - Spot Market: The spot price of polysilicon is 52,980 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the average price of N - type silicon wafers (210R) is 1.36 yuan/piece, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.51 US dollars/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 US dollars/kg; the basis of polysilicon is - 1,375 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 145 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 9,170 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 215 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 70,232.72 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 6,409.29 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,939.85 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 602.27 tons; the monthly output is 402,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 36,000 tons; the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, with a day - on - day increase of 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,292 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 286 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price is 2,350 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 270 US dollars/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,873,000 kilowatts, with a month - on - month increase of 1,016,000 kilowatts; the average price of mainstream photovoltaic modules is 0.74 yuan/watt, unchanged; the comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 yuan/W, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 yuan/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,200 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 19,491,300 units; the monthly import volume is 14,733,700 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 6,706,500 units; the monthly average import price is 0.3 US dollars/unit, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06 US dollars/unit [2]. Industry News - On October 28, GCL mentioned in a CCTV interview that 17 enterprises have basically signed, and the establishment of the consortium is expected to be completed within the year [2].