瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of industrial silicon sees concurrent reduction in the southwest and increase in the northwest; the demand from polysilicon is highly uncertain, while the demand from silicone and aluminum alloy is relatively stable; cost provides support for prices, while high inventory restricts the upward price movement. The industrial silicon price showed an upward trend today, with the overall price remaining high. Currently, the cost is maintained at 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton. It is expected that industrial silicon will rely on cost support, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9,170 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 211,670 lots, up 10,152 lots; the net position of the top 20 was -55,846 lots, down 7,555 lots; the warehouse receipts of the GFE were 48,044 lots, down 141 lots; the closing price of the December contract for industrial silicon was -375 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between the November and December contracts for industrial silicon was -375, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 180 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan; the spot price of DMC was 11,275 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 2,110 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 70,232.72 tons, up 1,939.85 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was down 6,409.29 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of silicone DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 21,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.85 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.51 US dollars/kg, down 0.02 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC was 70.05%, up 0.69 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1,776,000 tons, up 141,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was down 5,568.37 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - On October 28th, GCL mentioned in a CCTV interview that 17 enterprises have basically signed, and the establishment of the consortium is expected to be completed within this year. In terms of industrial silicon, from the fundamental perspective, on the supply side, Sichuan and Yunnan are transitioning from the wet season to the dry season in October, leading to an increase in manufacturers' production costs. Some enterprises with exhausted raw materials have chosen to stop production. As November approaches, the scale of production cuts during the dry season is expected to further expand. In Xinjiang, with stable and low - cost power supply, some manufacturers are actively investing in production, increasing the number of open furnaces and continuously releasing production capacity. On the demand side, the downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the silicone, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy fields [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - In the silicone segment, the inventory is lower than the historical average. The production profit of silicone has slightly rebounded but is still in the loss range, providing a certain rigid - demand procurement support for industrial silicon. Currently, most silicone manufacturers still have some pre - sold orders, and there are many maintenance manufacturers, with some planning to enter maintenance, which maintains the demand for industrial silicon to a certain extent. In the polysilicon segment, the inventory is as high as 278,300 tons, higher than the historical average. The price of silicon wafers is flat, and the price of solar cells is falling. The downstream transmission is not smooth, and leading enterprises have maintenance expectations, so there is a risk of weakening demand support for industrial silicon in the future. In the aluminum alloy segment, the operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises remains stable, and the demand for industrial silicon remains high. The demand performance is relatively stable, but in terms of marginal effect, the pulling effect on the price of industrial silicon is limited [2]