瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20251029

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market has complex supply - demand dynamics. The import of zinc ore has increased due to long - term agreement ores arriving at ports and refineries' raw material reserves for winter, but domestic zinc ore processing fees have decreased, sulfuric acid prices have fallen, squeezing smelter profits and limiting refined zinc production growth. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the export window has opened, and it is expected to turn to net exports. The demand side has a weak traditional peak - season effect, with the real estate sector being a drag and policy support in the automotive and home - appliance sectors bringing some highlights. Domestically, social inventories have slightly increased, downstream procurement demand is weak, while LME inventories have continuously decreased and the spot premium has reached a historical high. Technically, the short - selling atmosphere has weakened, and it is recommended to go long on dips [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,430 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the 11 - 12 - month contract spread is - 50 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,056.5 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars. The total Shanghai zinc open interest is 210,352 lots, up 1,255 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 8,341 lots, down 268 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 67,424 tons, down 847 tons. The SHFE inventory is 109,168 tons, down 459 tons, and the LME inventory is 35,250 tons, down 1,800 tons [3] 2.现货市场 - The SMM 0 zinc spot price is 22,290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 zinc spot price is 22,410 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 140 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The LME zinc cash - 3 spread is 171.09 dollars/ton, down 41.8 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,400 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The WBMS monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons, and the ILZSG monthly zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The ILZSG global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3] 4. Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons, and refined zinc exports are 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons. The social zinc inventory is 163,100 tons, up 7,700 tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons, and the sales volume is 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters, and the monthly housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles, and the monthly air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3] 6. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 13.54%, down 0.46 percentage points, and that of at - the - money zinc put options is 13.54%, down 0.46 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.29%, up 0.93 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.67%, down 0.15 percentage points [3] 7. Industry News - The "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions aim for economic growth in a reasonable range, improved total factor productivity, increased resident consumption rate, enhanced scientific and technological self - reliance, and breakthroughs in key core technologies in key fields. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The ADP will launch weekly employment data, and the first report shows an average increase of 14,250 private - sector jobs in the four weeks to October 11 [3]