Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-29 09:25Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market's oversupply situation is difficult to change, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with attention paid to the range of 120,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Technically, with the increase in positions and the decline in price, it maintains a range - bound operation. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or conduct range - bound operations [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,540 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 980 yuan/ton; the spread between the November - December contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 290 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 1,5245 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 90 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 109,686 lots, with a decrease of 5,360 lots. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 35,609 lots, with an increase of 2,531 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 251,436 tons, with an increase of 198 tons. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 36,075 tons (weekly), with an increase of 1,656 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 6,564 tons, with an increase of 156 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 31,433 tons, with an increase of 48 tons [3]. Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 121,900 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 250 yuan/ton; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals market is 122,100 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 150 yuan/ton. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, remaining unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, remaining unchanged. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,800 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 360 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1,230 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 207.07 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 1.89 US dollars/ton [3]. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 6.1145 million tons, with a decrease of 232,200 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 14.9791 million tons (weekly), with a decrease of 309,300 tons. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 56.72 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 4.61 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, remaining unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,700 metal tons, with a decrease of 300 metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, with an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, with an increase of 211,200 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, with an increase of 24,800 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 576,700 tons, with a decrease of 6,900 tons [3]. Industry News - The full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released, aiming to achieve decisive breakthroughs in key core technologies in key fields through extraordinary measures, fully implement the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, and vigorously boost consumption. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the release, increasing the supply cost of nickel resources. - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that in the next step, a moderately loose monetary policy will be implemented, and new policy measures will be studied and reserved. - The "small non - farm" data release agency ADP will launch weekly employment data from this week. The first report shows that the average number of private - sector jobs in the US increased by 14,250 in the four weeks ending October 11 [3]. Viewpoint Summary - In terms of supply, the PNBP policy of the Indonesian government restricts the release, increasing the supply cost of nickel resources, and the premium of domestic ores remains stable. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is at a high level, but the grade has decreased, and the domestic nickel ore inventory is at a low level compared with the same period last year. - In the smelting sector, new electrolytic nickel projects are being put into production slowly. Due to the low nickel price and cost pressure, some smelters are losing money and reducing production, so the output of refined nickel is expected to remain stable at a high level. - On the demand side, stainless steel mills show the characteristic of a lackluster peak season. Although steel mills increase production, the increase is small. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. The domestic nickel inventory continues to increase, the market mainly purchases on demand, and the spot premium is slightly reduced; the LME inventory overseas also shows an increase [3].