瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 29, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1302.0, up 3.50%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 coking coal was reported at 1460, equivalent to 1240 on the futures market. With the "15th Five - Year Plan" aiming to break obstacles in the national unified market, on the fundamental side, the mine - end开工率 decreased due to safety supervision, and the inventory was neutral. The开工率 of coal washing plants declined, while the mid - and downstream sectors replenished stocks, with the inventory expected to rise seasonally. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a shock - strengthening trend. [2] - On October 29, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1763.0, down 0.25%. In the afternoon, coking plants proposed a third - round price increase for coke, driving up the futures price. The "15th Five - Year Plan" focuses on promoting people - centered new urbanization. Fundamentally, on the demand side, the molten iron output continued its seasonal decline to 239.90 (-1.05 tons), and the total coke inventory was higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was -41 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a cost - driven shock - strengthening trend. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为1302.00元/吨，环比上涨60.00元；J主力合约收盘价为1801.00元/吨，环比上涨53.50元 [2] - JM期货合约持仓量为986010.00手，环比增加74792.00手；J期货合约持仓量为50565.00手，环比增加1262.00手 [2] - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 53839.00手，环比增加9484.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 5040.00手，环比减少608.00手 [2] - JM5 - 1月合约价差为76.50元/吨，环比上涨11.00元；J5 - 1月合约价差为143.00元/吨，环比上涨13.50元 [2] - 焦煤仓单为0.00张，无变化；焦炭仓单为2070.00张，无变化 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为1131.00元/吨，环比下降4.00元；唐山一级冶金焦价格为1775.00元/吨，环比上涨55.00元 [2] - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为157.50美元/湿吨，无变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1570.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元 [2] - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1700.00元/吨，无变化；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1670.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元 [2] - 京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1760.00元/吨，无变化；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1570.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元 [2] - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1520.00元/吨，无变化；内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1280.00元/吨，无变化 [2] - JM主力合约基差为218.00元/吨，环比下降60.00元；J主力合约基差为 - 26.00元/吨，环比上涨1.50元 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤产量为26.50万吨，环比下降0.20万吨；精煤库存为284.40万吨，环比下降5.20万吨 [2] - 314家独立洗煤厂产能利用率为0.37%，环比无变化；原煤产量为41150.50万吨，环比增加2100.80万吨 [2] - 煤及褐煤进口量为4600.00万吨，环比增加326.00万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为191.00万吨，环比下降5.10万吨 [2] - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为507.18万吨，环比增加19.02万吨；18个港口焦炭库存为260.79万吨，环比增加8.14万吨 [2] - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为1029.70万吨，环比增加32.33万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭库存为58.64万吨，环比增加1.35万吨 [2] - 全国247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为782.96万吨，环比下降5.36万吨；全国247家样本钢厂焦炭库存为633.16万吨，环比下降6.28万吨 [2] - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.77天，环比下降0.13天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.07天，环比下降0.12天 [2] - 炼焦煤进口量为1092.36万吨，环比增加76.14万吨；炼焦煤产量为3696.86万吨，环比下降392.52万吨 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 焦炭及半焦炭出口量为54.00万吨，环比下降1.00万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为73.47%，环比下降0.77% [2] - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利为 - 41.00元/吨，环比下降28.00元；焦炭产量为4255.60万吨，环比下降4.10万吨 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - 全国247家钢厂高炉开工率为84.73%，环比上涨0.48%；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为89.92%，环比下降0.39% [2] - 粗钢产量为7349.01万吨，环比下降387.84万吨 [2] 3.6 Industry News - “十五五规划建议”提出推进以人为本的新型城镇化 优化城市规模结构 促进大中小城市和小城镇协调发展 [2] - “十五五规划建议”提出破除全国统一大市场建设卡点堵点 整治“内卷式”竞争 保持投资合理增长 提高民生类政府投资比重 建立健全各类市场 [2] - 蒙古国政局内部斗争对煤炭进口暂无影响 本周三大口岸通关车数重回高位 [2] - 2025年10月焦煤长协煤钢联动浮动值较9月上涨43元/吨 涨幅3.1% [2]