Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-29 09:25Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply - side: For primary lead, despite some smelters planning to boost annual production and sales, there are many maintenance activities from October to November, so production is expected to rise slightly. For recycled lead, smelters affected by the 770 - document are gradually resuming production, but due to low raw material inventory and transportation control in northern regions, the increase in recycled lead output is limited, and the spot lead ingot will remain tight in the short - term. Lead prices are recommended to short at high levels [2]. - Demand - side: After the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has significantly rebounded. The traditional consumption season has arrived, and the "trade - in" activities in the automotive and electric bicycle markets support lead demand. Some leading battery companies have good orders and are expanding energy storage business, which will further increase lead demand. However, since September, the Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots has gradually expanded, and the export of Chinese lead - acid batteries is affected by tariffs, which will suppress demand growth to some extent [2]. - Inventory: Inventory has been continuously decreasing. But with the expected arrival of imported lead and the possible increase in recycled lead production, inventory may change next week. If the inventory depletion rate slows down, it will resist price increases [2]. - Overall: If the Fed's interest rate cut tomorrow is less than expected, the market may have a negative feedback. Lead prices are recommended to short at high levels [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract is 17,355 yuan/ton, with no change; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,025 dollars/ton, up 1.5 dollars/ton. The spread between the December - January contracts of Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The trading volume of Shanghai lead is 122,463 lots, down 566 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 974 lots, down 2,084 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt is 22,997 tons, down 100 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 36,333 tons, down 5,368 tons; the LME lead inventory is 229,675 tons, down 2,700 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,200 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,290 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The basis of the lead main contract is - 155 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 35.54 dollars/ton, down 1.74 dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 82.65%, up 1.01 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.96 tons, up 0.05 tons. The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,671 yuan, up 275 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 17,100 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, with no change. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, with no change. The global lead mine output is 383.3 kilotons, up 3.4 kilotons. The monthly lead ore import volume is 15.06 tons, up 1.58 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead is 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 380 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 9,967.86 yuan/ton, down 23.21 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 45,696 units, down 3,984 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,450 yuan/ton, with no change. The Shenwan industry index of batteries is 2,032.49 points, up 9.89 points. The monthly automobile production is 322.7 tons, up 47.46 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle production is 158 tons, up 24.7 tons [2]. Industry News - A lead - zinc mine project in Inner Mongolia has resumed production recently after suspension for rectification. It is expected that the total output of lead - zinc metal in November will reach 1,000 - 1,500 metal tons. However, affected by winter cold, it may enter the regular suspension period in mid - December, and the specific production plan is not clear [2]. - Macroscopically, ADP released the weekly estimated data of the US national employment report. In the four weeks ending October 11, the average number of newly - added jobs was 14,250 [2].