Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-29 09:24Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol port inventory fluctuates slightly in the short - term, with an expected increase in the next week due to the anticipated rise in short - term visible unloading volume and no obvious improvement in demand. - Affected by cost pressure and falling downstream prices, the short - term olefin enterprise operation rate may continue to decline. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2230 - 2300 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2257 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 64 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. - The position of the main contract is 1197415 lots, down 23877 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 220178 lots, up 17268 lots. - The number of warehouse receipts is 12122, down 1750 [2]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2200 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2010 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton. - The price difference between East China and Northwest is 190 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 41 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 257 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 324 dollars/ton, unchanged. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 267 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 67 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.25 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.15 dollars/million British thermal units [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 102.7 tons, up 3 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 48.52 tons, down 0.92 tons. - The import profit of methanol is - 4.75 yuan/ton, up 10.36 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 142.69 tons, down 33.29 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 360400 tons, up 500 tons; the operation rate of methanol enterprises is 85.65%, down 1.77% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operation rate of formaldehyde is 38.87%, down 2.01%; the operation rate of dimethyl ether is 5.33%, down 0.59%. - The operation rate of acetic acid is 74.4%, up 1.88%; the operation rate of MTBE is 67.79%, up 4.67%. - The operation rate of olefins is 90.43%, down 1.96%; the on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 886 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 18.39%, up 0.31%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.34%, up 0.03%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 18.45%, up 1.01%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.45%, up 1.17% [2]. Industry News - As of October 29, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 37.61 tons, up 1.57 tons, a 4.36% increase; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 21.56 tons, down 0.01 tons, a 0.04% decrease. - As of October 29, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 150.65 tons, down 0.57 tons. Among them, the inventory in East China has decreased by 2.97 tons, and the inventory in South China has increased by 2.40 tons. - The domestic methanol production has decreased due to more capacity losses from maintenance and production cuts than capacity output from recovery. The enterprise shipment rhythm is okay, and the unloading speed is average, with a large volume of unloading at non - dominant terminals [2].