瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the weather clearing up, agricultural demand has increased moderately, but due to excessive rain previously, autumn sowing has been postponed, and agricultural replenishment is scattered. Industrial demand is lukewarm. Some previously shut - down plants in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui have resumed production, increasing overall capacity utilization, but small and medium - sized enterprises in Henan and Hebei are still operating at a low level and actively digesting inventory. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer plants may increase slightly. Some previously suppressed demand has been released recently, and some reserve demand has followed up, helping urea factories increase new orders and shipments. This week, urea enterprise inventories have decreased. With many industry meetings recently, market sentiment is cautious. With downstream reserve demand following up, urea enterprise inventories are expected to fluctuate little. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1620 - 1660 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1644 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 73 yuan/ton, up 1948 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 270349 lots, down 2652 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 34609 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 0, down 2970 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1630 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Henan is 1590 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu is 1600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shandong is 1610 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Anhui is 1590 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 25 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. FOB Baltic is 348.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China main port is 375 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 210,000 tons, down 236,000 tons; enterprise inventory is 1.6302 million tons, up 14,800 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 78.03%, down 2.61 percentage points; the daily urea output is 182,600 tons, down 6000 tons. Urea exports are 1.37 million tons, up 570,000 tons; the monthly output is 5,738,670 tons, down 190,010 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 27.71%, up 3.53 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 48.3%, down 6.88 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 153 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 220 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.6618 million tons, down 651,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 24,100 tons, down 3300 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 29, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.5543 million tons, down 75,900 tons from last week, a 4.66% decrease. This period sees a shift from an increase to a decrease in enterprise inventory. As of October 23, the port sample inventory is 210,000 tons, down 236,000 tons, a 52.91% decrease. Port goods are leaving faster. Some domestic urea plants have newly shut down, and production has slightly decreased. This week, no enterprise plans to shut down, and 4 - 5 shut - down plants may resume production. As of October 23, the output of Chinese urea producers is 1.2779 million tons, down 42,600 tons from the previous period, a 3.23% decrease; the capacity utilization rate is 78.03%, down 2.61 percentage points, continuing to decline [2]