Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-29 09:31Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of the domestic cotton market shows that Xinjiang cotton has entered the large - scale harvesting stage with over 50% progress, faster than last year, and the processing cost of ginning factories has slightly increased. Inland cotton acquisition is slow due to continuous rainfall. The demand side shows that the demand of downstream textile enterprises is relatively weak, and the "Silver October" replenishment has not improved significantly. New cotton is in the listing stage, and the upward space of cotton prices is expected to be limited in the short term due to hedging pressure [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,620 yuan/ton, up 55; cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 113,788 hands, down 3,097; main contract holdings of cotton are 578,488 hands, down 596; cotton warehouse receipts are 2,460, down 11. Cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,865 yuan/ton, up 95; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 181 hands, down 40; main contract holdings of cotton yarn are 23,749 hands, down 346; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 4, down 2 [2] Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,840 yuan/ton, up 10; China Yarn Price Index of pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,475 yuan/ton, down 25. China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,116 yuan/ton, up 60; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,050 yuan/ton. The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index of pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,146 yuan/ton, up 1; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index of pure - combed 32 - count combed cotton yarn is 22,493 yuan/ton, up 2 [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,635 yuan/ton, down 10; industrial inventory of cotton is 861,000 tons, down 9,000 tons; cotton import volume is 100,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume is 130,000 tons, unchanged. Imported cotton profit is 780 yuan/ton, down 43; commercial inventory of cotton is 1.0217 million tons, down 460,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 25.24 days, up 0.39; grey fabric inventory days are 31.43 days, up 0.31. Cloth output is 2.811 billion meters, up 110 million meters; yarn output is 2.0738 million tons, up 45,900 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 12453247000 dollars, down 169265700 dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 11966516000 dollars, down 42668600 dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 9.08%, up 2.58; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 9.08%, up 2.58. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.71%, down 0.49; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.95%, down 0.02 [2] Industry News - Brazil exported 255,000 tons of cotton in the first four weeks of October, with a daily average of 14,200 tons, 11% more than the daily average in October last year. The total export volume in October last year was 280,900 tons. ICE cotton futures rose on Tuesday, with the December contract up 0.49 cents, or 0.76%, to settle at 65.05 cents per pound [2]