瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar surplus forecast for the new season has been mostly raised, with the recovery of sugar production in Thailand and India having a key impact on the supply side. India is expected to resume sugar exports in the 2025/26 season, with an initial market expectation of 200 million tons [2]. - In the domestic market, 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production in the 2025/26 season, with a total production expected to be around 140 million tons. Short - term supply of northern beet sugar will gradually increase [2]. - In September 2025, China's sugar imports were 550,000 tons, a decrease of about 280,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 3.16 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 270,000 tons or 9.4%. Most of Thailand's syrup and pre - mixed sugar powder production enterprises still within the validity period are in a "suspended import" state, which is expected to limit syrup imports again and is beneficial to the domestic market. Short - term sugar prices have support [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar was 5,494 yuan/ton, and the main contract position was 391,035 hands, a decrease of 9,001 hands. The number of warehouse receipts was 7,625, a decrease of 70. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 61,969 hands. The effective warehouse receipt forecast was 586, unchanged [2]. - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 3,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,049 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) and imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) were 5,052 yuan/ton and 5,129 yuan/ton respectively, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou was 5,780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, and the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 1,116.21 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar production was 835.09 million tons, a decrease of 12.86 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 999.98 million tons, a decrease of 44.98 million tons. The national sugar sales rate was 89.99%. The monthly import volume of sugar was 550,000 tons, a decrease of 280,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Brazil's total sugar exports in the month were 3.2458 billion tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,512 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was not provided. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 509 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 432 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 53.91 million tons, and the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.5917 billion tons, a decrease of 184.1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 6.42%, a decrease of 1.43%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 6.43%, a decrease of 1.42%. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 8.05%, an increase of 0.37%; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.28%, an increase of 0.17% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Brazil exported 3.2014 billion tons of sugar in the first four weeks of October, with a daily average export volume of 178,500 tons, a 5% increase compared to the daily average export volume of 169,500 tons in the whole of October last year. The total export volume in October last year was 3.7294 billion tons [2]. - The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell 0.09 cents, or 0.60%, to settle at 14.37 cents per pound, hitting the lowest level in nearly five years due to supply growth and demand concerns [2].