瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand with inventory depletion. The raw material prices are rising due to overseas miners' price - holding and good demand from lithium salt plants. The supply of domestic lithium carbonate is growing steadily, and the demand is strong, especially in the power battery and energy storage markets. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the technical indicator shows a short - term signal. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 82,900 yuan/ton, up 1,260 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 203,973 hands, down 7,847 hands. The main contract's open interest is 506,882 hands, up 18,079 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 660 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts are 27,525 hands/ton, up 190 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 79,150 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 76,950 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan. The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 3,750 yuan/ton, down 610 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 983 US dollars/ton, up 24 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 8,825 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,935 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,140 tons, up 1,260 tons; the monthly import volume is 19,596.9 tons, down 2,250.01 tons; the monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons. The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, up 1%. The monthly output of power batteries is 151,200 MWh, up 11,600 MWh. The price of lithium manganate is 33,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 102,500 yuan/ton, up 10,000 yuan; the price of lithium cobaltate is 343,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 163,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 142,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 154,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, down 2%; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 59%, up 2%. The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,617,000, up 226,000; the monthly sales volume is 1,604,000, up 209,000. The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 46.09%, up 0.55%. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 11,228,000, up 2,908,000. The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 222,000, down 2,000; the cumulative export volume is 1,758,000, up 830,000. The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 23.64%, up 0.25%; the 40 - day average volatility is 25.90%, up 0.22% [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription open interest is 159,383, up 6,447; the total put open interest is 85,772, up 14,278. The put - call ratio of total open interest is 53.82%, up 7.0674%. The implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.34%, down 0.0323% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) announced that its Q3 revenue was 6.249 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 44.10%; the net profit was 557 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 364.02%. The revenue in the first three quarters was 14.625 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.02%; the net profit was 26 million yuan, turning from loss to profit. The Chinese government issued a proposal to boost consumption, including measures such as promoting employment, increasing income, and expanding service consumption. European car sales in September increased by 11% to 1.24 million, EU car registrations increased by 10% to 889,000, Tesla's new car registrations in the EU in September decreased by 19%, and BYD's increased by 272% [2]. 3.8 View Summary - The main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuated strongly, with an increase of 0.8% at the close. The open interest increased month - on - month, the spot was at a discount, and the basis weakened. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double lines above the 0 - axis with the first appearance of green bars. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks [2].