午后铜价增仓上行

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪铜: In the afternoon of the day, the macro - atmosphere warmed up, and the copper price increased with rising positions. The main contract price broke through the high on Monday and approached the 89,000 mark. LME copper also broke through the high in May 2024 during the session. The warming of both domestic and foreign macro - environments, combined with the expected supply contraction, led to the continuous increase in copper price with rising positions [4]. - 沪铝: In the afternoon, the macro - atmosphere warmed up, and the aluminum price increased with rising positions. As the macro - environment improved and the copper price rose strongly, the aluminum price followed. At the industrial level, the inventory of downstream aluminum rods decreased, while the inventory reduction of intermediate electrolytic aluminum slowed down due to the high aluminum price. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [5]. - 沪镍: In the afternoon, the position of Shanghai nickel decreased while the price rebounded, especially at the end of the session. Previously, when the macro - environment improved and non - ferrous metals prices rose, nickel rebounded with a decreasing position but lacked strength. With the improvement of the macro - environment today, the nickel price rebounded again with a decreasing position. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the high on Monday [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: The Trump administration in the United States on Friday overturned an air - pollution regulation of the previous administration, which imposed stricter restrictions on the emissions of copper smelters. The copper rule finalized in May 2024 required smelters to control pollutants such as lead, arsenic, mercury, benzene, and dioxins according to the latest US federal air standards. The US announcement provided a two - year exemption for affected fixed sources, aiming to promote US mineral security by reducing the regulatory burden on domestic copper producers [8]. - Nickel: On October 29, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,400 - 123,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel was - 300 - 100 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - Copper: The report presents multiple charts related to copper, including domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, copper monthly spread, etc. These charts show the inventory and price spread trends of copper from different aspects [10][11][12]. - Aluminum: The charts for aluminum include the aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina inventory, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and aluminum rod inventory, which reflect the market situation of aluminum [20][22][24]. - Nickel: The nickel - related charts cover the nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel price trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, and nickel monthly spread, providing information on the nickel market [32][34][36].