宏观经济专题研究：旧尺子量不出新经济

Group 1: Economic Analysis - The monthly GDP estimate for Q3 showed a significant deviation from the official value, exceeding 0.5 percentage points, indicating a potential model "failure" due to subtle changes in national economic statistics[1] - The construction industry was identified as the main source of deviation, with infrastructure and real estate investment growth rates declining sharply, which should have dragged down GDP by approximately 0.7 percentage points, but only resulted in a 0.13 percentage point decline[2] - The correlation between infrastructure and real estate investment and construction GDP has significantly weakened since 2023, suggesting a profound change in economic structure[3] Group 2: Structural Changes and Policy Implications - The construction sector is gradually shifting from new development to renovation activities, with the share of renovation-related construction expected to rise to about 40% by 2025, while the share of new development declines[4] - The era of large-scale infrastructure investment may be coming to an end, as the focus of economic policy shifts from "investment in physical assets" to "investment in human capital"[5] - Future government fiscal policies will likely prioritize urban renewal and related service industry development, moving away from traditional infrastructure and real estate development[6] Group 3: Risks and Data Quality - Risks include model failure, volatility in overseas markets, and uncertainties in domestic policy execution[7] - The quality of statistical data has improved since 2018, but the weakening correlation in 2023 suggests that economic structural changes are not being accurately captured by existing metrics[8]