Guoxin Securities·2025-10-29 09:49Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 25.033 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.27%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.004 billion yuan, up 76.0% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.97 yuan [9][4]. - The growth in revenue and profit is primarily attributed to the expansion of overseas business and the consolidation of the Nigerian acquisition, while domestic cement prices and volumes remain under pressure [4][9]. - The company has made significant progress in its internationalization strategy, with non-cement business contributing 43% to revenue and 44% to EBITDA as of mid-2025 [4][25]. Financial Performance - The gross margin improved to 29.5%, an increase of 5.47 percentage points year-on-year, with quarterly gross margins showing a slight decline in Q3 compared to Q2 [3][12]. - Operating cash flow for the first nine months was 3.227 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.6% year-on-year, while the debt-to-asset ratio was 53.22%, slightly up from the previous quarter but still manageable [12][3]. - The company expects EPS for 2025-2027 to be 1.43, 1.77, and 1.92 yuan per share, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15.6, 12.6, and 11.6 [4][5]. Overseas Expansion - The company has established operations in 14 countries, including Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and completed the equity transfer for the Nigerian acquisition, which has a cement production capacity of approximately 10.6 million tons per year [4][25]. - The overseas grinding capacity has surpassed 35 million tons per year, with ongoing projects in Mozambique expected to further enhance production capabilities [25][4]. Future Outlook - The company maintains its "Outperform the Market" rating, focusing on the continued growth of overseas operations and the potential recovery of domestic cement prices due to supply-side optimization [4][5]. - The financial forecasts indicate a stable growth trajectory, with expected revenue growth rates of 4.3% in 2025 and 11.2% in 2026 [5][4].