宏观氛围偏暖，钢矿偏强运行：钢材&铁矿石日报-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 1.00%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Under the current situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have limited improvement, and the pressure of inventory reduction remains. Steel prices are still prone to pressure, but the market sentiment is positive, and the strong raw materials provide cost support. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate and stabilize. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil showed a strong trend with a daily increase of 1.21%, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, the supply of hot-rolled coil is high, and there are concerns about demand. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are cost support and optimistic sentiment. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate and stabilize. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore rose strongly with a daily increase of 1.96%, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, the market sentiment is positive, and combined with the change in the variety logic, the iron ore futures price has returned to a high level. However, the supply of ore is high, and demand is weakening. The fundamentals of ore have not improved, and the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend will maintain a high-level operation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - The General Offices of five departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Action Plan for Improving the Quality of Urban Commerce", which emphasizes the integration of emerging technologies in the urban business system and the improvement of intelligent services and business models [6]. - In the first three quarters, the transportation industry completed a fixed - asset investment of 2.6 trillion yuan. By mode, railway investment was 593.7 billion yuan, highway investment was 1.78 trillion yuan, waterway investment was 160.5 billion yuan, and civil aviation investment was 82.9 billion yuan [7]. - On October 24, 2025, Australia launched anti - dumping and counter -vailing investigations on flat - rolled steel products imported from China and an anti - dumping investigation on those from South Korea [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price was 3,210 yuan, Tianjin was 3,170 yuan, and the national average was 3,258 yuan. - Hot - rolled coil: The Shanghai price was 3,360 yuan, Tianjin was 3,250 yuan, and the national average was 3,370 yuan. - Tangshan steel billet: The price was 3,000 yuan. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price was 2,160 yuan. - 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 807 yuan, and Tangshan iron concentrate powder was 823 yuan [9]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase or Decrease (%) | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,133 | 1.00 | 3,135 | 3,092 | 1,239,602 | - 93,804 | 1,894,007 | - 36,350 | | Hot - rolled coil | - | 3,345 | 1.21 | 3,350 | 3,302 | 573,794 | 69,479 | 1,461,059 | - 12,738 | | Iron ore | - | 804.5 | 1.96 | 807.0 | 792.0 | 354,444 | 24,361 | 542,850 | - 6,094 | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel and iron ore inventories (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore at ports and in steel mills), as well as charts on steel mill production (such as blast furnace operating rate, electric furnace operating rate, and profitability of steel mills) [15][20][29]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Rebar: Both supply and demand have increased. The weekly output of rebar increased by 5.91 tons, and demand has also improved seasonally. However, the fundamentals have limited improvement, and the pressure of inventory reduction remains. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate and stabilize. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [36]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has improved, and inventory has decreased again. The weekly output increased slightly by 0.62 tons, and demand has performed well. However, there are concerns about demand. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate and stabilize. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [36]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. Ore demand is expected to continue to decline, while supply remains high. The futures price has returned to a high level, but the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected to maintain a high - level operation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [37].