库存去化，难改宽松逻辑

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of urea remains loose, with no obvious improvement in downstream demand. The rebound of urea prices is blocked, and it will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term, with a clear upper pressure level [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 行情分析 (Market Analysis) - Urea futures opened lower and moved higher with a stronger - than - expected trend. The spot market had poor trading, with insufficient domestic demand and strong resistance from downstream to high prices, and prices remained stable. The daily output of urea had a slight increase recently, but there were still plants under inspection or shut - down, so the output fluctuation was small. The cost - end was strongly supported by the rising coal price due to the serious losses of gas - based plants. The agricultural demand was in progress, and the factory's finished - product inventory was gradually decreasing but still slightly higher than the same period last year. The spring compound fertilizer production was about to start, and the inventory situation had improved compared to the previous loose state but had not reversed the inventory - accumulation cycle [1] 期现行情 (Futures and Spot Market Conditions) - Futures: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1638 yuan/ton, opened high and moved low, with a stronger - than - expected trend, and finally closed at 1644 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. The trading volume was 270349 lots, a decrease of 2652 lots. On October 29, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 0, a decrease of 2970 compared to the previous trading day due to centralized cancellation. Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions decreased by 5189 lots, and short positions decreased by 1821 lots [2] - Spot: The spot market had poor trading, with insufficient domestic demand and strong resistance from downstream to high prices, and prices remained stable. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was still 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [1][4] 基本面跟踪 (Fundamental Tracking) - 基差 (Basis): The mainstream spot market quotation remained stable, and the futures closing price increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at - 64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [7] - 供应数据 (Supply Data): On October 29, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 190400 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.45% [8] - 企业库存数据 (Enterprise Inventory Data): As of October 31, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5543 million tons, a decrease of 75900 tons compared to last week, a decrease of 4.66% [11] - 预售订单天数 (Pre - sale Order Days): As of October 31, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.53 days, an increase of 0.12 days compared to the previous period, an increase of 1.62% [11]