宁证期货今日早评-20251029

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - Commodity Market Outlook: The overall commodity market shows a complex situation with different trends for each product. Some are affected by supply - demand dynamics, while others are influenced by geopolitical events, policy changes, and market sentiment. For example, oil prices are short - term volatile but suppressed by supply - demand fundamentals, and precious metals are waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision [1][4]. - Impact of Key Events: Events such as the US government shutdown, potential sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the Fed's interest - rate decisions have significant impacts on the financial and commodity markets. These events create uncertainties and drive market sentiment [1][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - Crude Oil: As of the week ending October 24, 2025, US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all decreased significantly. The API data led to a short - term jump in oil prices. However, supply - demand factors still suppress oil prices. The market is currently weighing the impact of US sanctions on Russian oil companies and OPEC+'s potential production increase plan. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - PTA: Polyester inventory is relatively low, providing support from the demand side. However, new production facilities are being tested, leading to a strong expectation of weakening supply - demand balance. With the overnight decline in crude oil prices, the cost - side support has weakened. The PTA market is expected to decline slightly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [5]. Precious Metals - Gold: The US government remains in a shutdown state, and the Fed is about to hold an interest - rate meeting. Precious metals are oscillating while waiting for the meeting's outcome. Although the risk - aversion sentiment has cooled down, the buying power for gold remains strong. Gold is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and a cautious approach is recommended. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1]. - Silver: The market has basically priced in another interest - rate cut by the Fed. Silver is expected to be bullish in the long term, with short - term oscillations and limited downside. Opportunities for long positions should be monitored [4]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The GAPKI reported that Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly in August. However, multiple mining associations are requesting the Indonesian government to cancel the B50 plan, raising concerns about future demand. The expected increase in supply is putting pressure on palm oil prices, which are expected to be weak in the short term [3]. - Rapeseed Meal: The supply of rapeseed meal is rigidly short, and coastal oil mills have low inventories, reducing the risk of price decline. As the import cost of soybean meal rises due to the rebound in international soybean prices, the price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen. Rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [4]. - Pork: On October 28, the national pork price rose significantly. With the improvement in consumption due to cooling weather, the reduction in end - of - month slaughter pressure, and the entry of second - round fattening, there is short - term positive support. The pork futures price has bottomed out and rebounded, but the upward momentum is limited. Farmers should hedge according to their slaughter schedules [3]. Industrial Metals - Iron Ore: From October 20 to 26, the global iron ore shipment volume increased. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, while terminal demand remains weak, and port inventories continue to accumulate. However, positive factors such as China - US talks and the Fed's potential interest - rate cut have boosted market sentiment. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and interval trading is recommended for the Iron Ore 2601 contract [6]. - Carbonate Lithium: The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to increase in October, potentially reaching a new high. However, the demand in the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets is strong, leading to a significant inventory reduction. The market shows a pattern of supply - demand balance with a trend of de - stocking [8]. - Rebar: On October 28, domestic steel prices rose slightly. Positive news such as environmental protection restrictions in Hebei has boosted market confidence, and the tight supply of coking coal and the second - round price increase of coke have provided cost support. However, as the traditional peak season approaches its end, steel demand is difficult to increase, and the future increase in raw material prices is uncertain. Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside may be limited [9]. Others - Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, which will support the treasury bond futures market. Open - market operations of treasury bonds will affect prices from the supply - demand perspective, and are likely to be a positive factor for the bond market. Considering factors such as liquidity, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and open - market operations, the bond market is expected to oscillate slightly upward in the medium term [5][6]. - Natural Rubber: China's natural rubber inventory has been continuously decreasing, and warehouse receipts have been declining. The reduction in macro - level pressure is driving the market upward. A bullish approach is recommended for natural rubber at low prices [7].